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Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
  • EUR/USD 1.15 could derail rally
  • GBP/USD 2015 support is now resistance
  • USD/JPY to 105...eventually

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox several times a week.

--For more analysis and trade setups (including current positions and the ‘watchlist’), visit SB Trade Desk

EUR/USD

Weekly

Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-FXTW wrote last week that “the declines into March and December 2015 found support just below the line that extends off of the 1985 and 2000 lows (a parallel from the March low was close to the December low). November and December trade produced a tweezer bottom (reversal candlestick pattern…bullish in this case) as well. This week’s move through the 55 week average is important because the widely watched average was precise resistance in August and October 2015. Weekly RSI, which stalled just above 50 on the 2015 rally attempts, is attempting its own ‘breakout’ attempt. 1.1050/60 (March and December 2015 highs) is viewed as pivotal to the integrity of the bullish interpretation.” EUR/USD followed through on the breakout this week but be aware of 1.15 (October high) as a level where the rally could fail. 1.1050/60 remains support.

-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

GBP/USD

Weekly

Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-As noted previously, “RSI divergence on the weekly is intriguing but daily momentum at the low is more typical of a 3rd wave. So, it’s still wise to treat strength in a corrective manner.” 2015 lows has thus far capped the bounce from the rally. In other words, former support is providing resistance. This dynamic is bearish.

AUD/USD

Weekly

Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-There is no change to recent comments. “Corrective (range bound) trading behavior may very well continue given the weekly tweezer bottom (at the long term median line no less). Divergence with RSI on the weekly serves as a bullish reversal warning too.” FXTW adds that resistance may reside in the mid .7400s.

NZD/USD

Weekly

Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-NZD/USD strength continues to fail just shy of the long term median line, which is in line with horizontal resistance from last July. Bearish wicks on recent weekly candles don’t bode well for the Bird either. As noted previously, “The red lines on the chart indicate a long term RSI trend sell signal (higher RSI and lower price). The October high remains critical to any bearish interpretation.”

USD/JPY

Weekly

Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Despite BoJ efforts, FXTW maintained recently that “a broader topping formation is still possible.” The main reason for the stand was the fact that “the 2015 high was right at the 1990-1998 line (log scale)”. USD/JPY has completed a head and shoulders pattern and the objective is mid-105.00s. There is a lot at 105, including the top side of the 2002-2007 line, the January 2014 high, and October 2014 low. Trading levels to be aware of include 110.00s (October 2014 high) and 115.50s-116.20s (breakdown level).

USD/CAD

Monthly

Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-The most recent update from FXTW noted that “the 1976-1991 line, which was resistance (not precise however), could end up as support again on the next ‘correction’. That line is around 1.3600. If USD/CAD is going to ‘correct’, which might it correct from? At this point, I’d watch the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the 2002-2007 decline. The Fib is 1.4659.” USD/CAD topped at 1.4689 in January and just found support near the parallel of the mentioned long term line. With 2 important barriers on either side of price, a period of sideways trade may be in store.

USD/CHF

Weekly

Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

-Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here. Levels for possible support on this decline are .9595 (trendline and January 2012 high) and just below .9400 (trendline and 200 week average).

Bonus Chart

Crude Oil Weekly Nearest Future

Crude Oil Turn in the Pipeline?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

-Crude rallied on over 10% on Friday but you can’t tell by looking at this chart. Keep the move in context, crude has declined 77.3% since the 2011 high (broad commodities top). That number is interesting because the financial crisis decline measured 77.46%. ‘Equality’ between alternating legs in a market move is NOT uncommon. So, was that the low? No idea! Crude could still drop into a 25 handle to test a parallel (2011-2013 line, extended off of the 2009 low) before turning up. I’ll be following shorter term charts in the interim for indications of behavior changes that would suggest a more important turn is already underway.

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