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EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

2016-01-15 19:29:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:
  • EUR/USD monthly tweezer bottom
  • GBP/USD breaks 3 decade trendline
  • FXI (China) support in 9%

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--For more analysis and trade setups (including current positions and the ‘watchlist’), visit SB Trade Desk

EUR/USD

Monthly

EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-EUR/USD has been holding its long term trendline support since March 2015 (even the January low is right on the line). November and December trade produced a tweezer bottom (reversal candlestick pattern…bullish in this case) as well. 2 scenarios seem most likely from the current juncture; a continued range (with roughly 1.15 resistance) or a bullish base that leads to an eventual breakout into the 1.20s. Both point higher from current levels. SSI, which is currently negative (and has been for most of the last 5 weeks), supports the long side now too.

GBP/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-Unlike EUR/USD, GBP/USD has failed to hold its trendline that originates at the 1985 low (this is the case as of noon in NY Friday…the line is at about 1.4390). The cross is on the verge of taking out the 2010 low at 1.4229, which would put GBP/USD at its lowest level since March 2009. The next market level that might stem the freefall is the 1.40…in part due to the psychological aspect of the figure but also because of the presence of a parallel (parallel to line that extends off of the 1992 and 2007 highs).

AUD/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-Recent AUD/USD comments were that “the dominant downtrend is very much intact but there have been prolonged periods of trading around this median line that gave way to decent counter trend moves (rallies). In other words, everything since the September low may very well be corrective but AUD/USD could trade in a more or less nonsensical range for a while longer before the downtrend attempts to reassert.” Weakness has resumed and the measured objective from the latest range is .6433.

NZD/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-FXTW wrote in the last update that “NZD/USD has responded positively to the mentioned support zone. As such, look higher while above .6428 but beware of resistance around .6805.” The recent top was a bit above .6805…at .6882 but price did remain below the October high. In fact, the October and December highs create a double top within the longer term downtrend. The red lines on the chart indicate a long term RSI trend sell signal (higher RSI and lower price).

USD/JPY

Weekly

EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The uptrend that USD/JPY enjoyed since the December 2012 breakout is over. The cross topped nearly 7 months ago at a long term trendline. All of this doesn’t mean that USD/JPY can’t or won’t experience rallies. All of this does mean that rallies should be sold. Be patient and use stops, as outlined in the popular TOST series. As noted in the Q1 technical outlook, a head and shoulders pattern yields a target near 105.

USD/CAD

Monthly

EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The most recent FXTW comments were that “new highs could carry to the next parallel near 1.38. We’re now above 1.41! Extremely long term slope analysis reveals that the 1976-1991 line, which was resistance (not precise however), could end up as support again on the next ‘correction’. That line is around 1.3600. If USD/CAD is going to ‘correct’, which might it correct from? FXTW thought that the 1.4270-1.4420 zone would do it (1986 high, 1995 high, and 2000 low) in the 1.4270-1.4420 zone. That zone didn’t do anything. At this point, I’d watch the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the 2002-2007 decline. The Fib is 1.4659.

USD/CHF

Weekly

EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here…Near term however, the breakout from the 7 month triangle in USD/CHF has failed. Support may reside near .9600 (topside of former triangle line).

BONUS CHART

FXI (China Large Cap ETF)

Weekly

EUR/USD Monthly Tweezer Bottom; Watch this Level in FXI (China)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

-FXI, the large cap China ETF has fallen apart. Former support, specifically the line that extends off of the February 2009 level and was support in August 2015, will be watched for resistance later in this year. So, where’s support? The only level that FXTW can come up with is a parallel, which is just above 27 over the next few weeks. That’s 9% from current levels (29.70). With the world trading off of China at the moment, respect the potential for more downside before we reach the slope of hope.

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