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USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
  • GBP/USD follows through on reversal
  • USD/JPY reverses November breakout
  • USD/CHF reversal or bear trap?

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox several times a week.

--For more analysis and trade setups (including current positions and the ‘watchlist’), visit SB Trade Desk

EUR/USD

Weekly

USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The 30 year trendline has sent EUR/USD nearly 5 big figures higher in 8 trading days. As noted last week, “establishing above 1.10 (200 day average) would be a ‘vote’ for more important bullish developments. Until then, the waters are murky.” Here we are (1.10). A break above 1.10 would target a trendline on the daily in the mid-1.1200s, at which point it would be wise to re-assess the situation. Follow SSI, which is currently bullish (-1.5…retail is short).

GBP/USD

Weekly

USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-FXTW wrote last week that “the weekly reversal warrants bullish consideration, especially since this week’s low is at well-defined parallel support.” GBP/USD followed through on the reversal, which is clearly a positive. Exceptional reward/risk, a common trait of successful traders, on longer term prospects remains.

AUD/USD

Weekly

USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-Recent AUD/USD comments were that “the dominant downtrend is very much intact but there have been prolonged periods of trading around this median line that gave way to decent counter trend moves (rallies). In other words, everything since the September low may very well be corrective but AUD/USD could trade in a more or less nonsensical range for a while longer before the downtrend attempts to reassert.” AUD/USD is struggling at resistance. A break above the resistance described in that video could trigger a run towards longer term slope resistance (and the 55 week average) in the mid .7600s.

NZD/USD

Weekly

USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-NZD/USD is wedged between a long term resistance line (was support in January) and an even longer term support line. Recent developments give scope to a broad bottoming process. The Daily Techs asked “is this a trend change or just a bounce within the downtrend?That question might be answered with how the rate trades around .6455-.6500. The burden of proof is on bulls to step up in order to suggest that the last few months compose a bottoming process rather than just a bear market advance.” NZDUSD has responded positively to the mentioned support zone. As such, look higher while above .6428 but beware of resistance around .6805.

USD/JPY

Weekly

USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The below chart displays a yearly (each bar is 1 year) USD/JPY log chart. Remember, huge reversals have materialized in years that end in 5. A top formed following the last 3 year rally (1994-1996). 12 month rate of change exhibits divergence and the top in June was at the line that connects the 1990 and 1998 highs. Finally, a yearly doji may form for 2015 (a lot to be decided next week). Shorter term, this week’s drop under 121.60 (bullish breakout level in November) is bearish.

USD/JPY

Yearly

USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

USD/CAD

Weekly

USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-No need to complicate things with USD/CAD. The most recent FXTW comments were that “new highs could carry to the next parallel near 1.38 (all-time high is 1.618…). Below 1.3175 would delay anything bullish until support near 1.2900 (slope line that crosses the February high, March high, and October low).” Obviously, USD/CAD never came close to 1.3175 and 1.3800 is within striking distance. After that, there is nothing of note until the 2004 high at 1.40. Be aware of 34 in USOIL if you trade Loonie.

USD/CHF

Weekly

USD/JPY Reverses November Breakout; Working on Yearly Doji

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The breakout from the 7 month triangle in USD/CHF has failed. Support may reside near .9700 (topside of former triangle line). A turn higher from .9700 would be viewed as a positive and raise the possibility of recent weakness as a ‘bear trap’ rather than an outright reversal.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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