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AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

2015-11-20 14:46:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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  • EUR/USD 2nd smallest range of the year
  • AUD/USD at 14 month trendline
  • NZD/USD broad bottoming process a possibility

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EUR/USD

Weekly

AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-While under the summer lows (1.0807/47), EUR/USD downside potential may be realized towards parity (parallel with line from 1995-2008 highs). In fact, those summer lows provided resistance earlier in November. Former support providing resistance is bearish but be aware of the 30 year trendline that EURUSD is sitting on. In other words, be quick to abandon a bearish bias and even turn bullish on a move through resistance (summer lows) lest you be run over by a rally similar in scope to the ones that have materialized from this line in the past. I’ve been tracking SSI down here too. Typically, SSI will register a reading near 2 (or -2 for a bull move) early in a trending move. Despite one of the strongest 20 day declines in recent years (20 day RoC was lower at the Jan and March lows), SSI hasn’t even spent much time above 1.5. The implication is that retail is hesitant to buy weakness. This isn’t necessarily bullish, but it’s not bearish either.

GBP/USD

Weekly

AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-No change to the most recent GBPUSD comments. “In line with the broader trend, 9 months of sideways trade in GBP/USD has resolved to the downside. Focus is on the lower parallel supports that cross lows over the last several years. In other words, focus is on a new low (below the April low). A break of the downward sloping lower parallels could set off a crash towards the 2009 low.”

AUD/USD

Weekly

AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-AUD/USD followed through on the prior week’s bullish engulfing pattern (highlighted on below chart). FXTW noted last week that “the dominant downtrend is very much intact but there have been prolonged periods of trading around this median line that gave way to decent counter trend moves (rallies). In other words, everything since the September low may very well be corrective but AUD/USD could trade in a more or less nonsensical range for a while longer before the downtrend attempts to reassert.” It’s also worth noting that AUD/USD is pressing a 14 month trendline (see below chart). A break above could trigger a run towards longer term slope resistance (and the 55 week average) in the mid .7600s.

AUD/USD

Weekly

AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

NZD/USD

Weekly

AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-NZD/USD is wedged between a long term resistance line (was support in January) and an even longer term support line. If this long term support gives way, then focus would shift to .5673 (combination of the next parallel and the 1999 high). However, this week’s developments give scope to a broad bottoming process. The Daily Techs asked “is this a trend change or just a bounce within the downtrend. That question might be answered with how the rate trades around .6455-.6500. The burden of proof is on bulls to step up in order to suggest that the last few months compose a bottoming process rather than just a bear market advance.” NZDUSD responded positively to the mentioned support zone this week. As such, look higher while above this week’s low (.6428).

USD/JPY

Weekly

AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-NFP day (11/6) produced a break above an important horizontal level in 121.60. FXTW wrote several updates ago that “immediate focus is on the long term upward sloping median line. This line has been support and resistance in the past. The late 2014 (BoJ on Halloween) advance commenced upon a break above this line as well. Point is, the line is a useful reference point…so pay attention!” That line has been reached (for 2 consecutive weeks now) and USD/JPY has pulled back. The breakout level (120.60) remains important to the integrity of the bull move. Weakness below there would once again bring a yearlong topping process into focus.

USD/CAD

Weekly

AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-There is no change to recent comments. “Recent USD/CAD action diminishes confidence in (but doesn’t destroy) the topping ‘idea’. New highs could carry to the next parallel near 1.38 (all-time high is 1.618…). Below 1.3175 would delay anything bullish until support near 1.2900 (slope line that crosses the February high, March high, and October low).”

USD/CHF

Weekly

AUD/USD Follows Through on Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-There is no change to recentUSD/CHF comments other than noting that 1.0060/70 is support in the event of a pullback. “USD/CHF has broken out from a 7+ month triangle. The rate has stalled at the year open price. The triangle breakout objective is 1.1182.”

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