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USDJPY Nears Month End at 20 Year Trendline

USDJPY Nears Month End at 20 Year Trendline

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
  • EURUSD 1.1030 is key level
  • GBPUSD pulls back after breakout
  • USDJPY possible monthly doji at 20 year line

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--For more analysis and trade setups (including current positions and the ‘watchlist’), visit SB Trade Desk

EUR/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Nears Month End at 20 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“Since the March low, EURUSD has rallied sharply and declined sharply. The decline from the May high ended near the 61.8% retracement of the March-May advance. Daily RSI briefly poked above 70 at the May high and bottomed at 40 at the May low. These observations are consistent with a sideways market at worst and possibly the early stages of a larger rally. Even a test of the major breakdown level would result in a move to 1.20.

-If the broader move is higher then EURUSD needs to find support near the trendline that extends off of the April and May lows. That line is near 1.1035 (4/6 high) early next week.

GBP/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Nears Month End at 20 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-“GBPUSD has broken above its 52 week average for the first time since September 2013. There are hurdles to clear from slope resistance (on various time frames) up to about 1.60. As such, a period of consolidation below 1.60 may be in store before an attempt on 1.64+ (2 equal legs from the April low).”

-The pullback has found support on the daily. Failure to hold the 6/24 low would open up 1.5500.

AUD/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Nears Month End at 20 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-A slope confluence pinpointed the May high, which keeps the broader trend pointed lower. A long term level to be aware of in AUDUSD is the line that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows, which is near .7100. Be aware that the range that has been underway since April could persist for months and morph into a triangle or flat pattern.

NZD/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Nears Month End at 20 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”

-“A bearish wedge pattern has formed and yields an objective of .6607.” Look towards the mentioned objective as long as price is below .7230. A weekly close above .7050 would warn of a bottoming attempt.

USD/JPY

Weekly

USDJPY Nears Month End at 20 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“A USDJPY breakout from the 6 month coil would open up 123.16-124.13 (high close from June 2007 and 2007 high). A measured objective from the pattern yields 125.72 and 128.12.”

-USDJPY ended up trading to 125.85 (the mentioned 125.72 was the December range x .618 + the December high…basically a Fibonacci range expansion). Failure at long term uptrend resistance indicates potential for an important top to form. As I type, there are 2 days left in June and USDJPY is little changed for the month (month open is 124.10). In other words, a monthly doji could form…at a 20 year trendline (former support…may provide resistance now)!

USD/CAD

Weekly

USDJPY Nears Month End at 20 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“A broader range may in store. In fact, weekly RSI recorded its 2nd highest reading ever in Jan (only higher reading was in 1984). Other high periods led to extended periods of sideways trading. The failed run at a high volume level (1.2560) twice warns of additional range trading.” Levels to pay attention to within the range are 1.2160 and 1.2430.

USD/CHF

Weekly

USDJPY Nears Month End at 20 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“Is USDCHF leading? Lower highs and lower lows since February along with a bearish daily RSI profile indicate potential for something bigger on the downside (think .8600).”

-The break above near term slope this week indicates a short term behavior change. .9250 needs to hold in order to look higher. Watch for resistance near .9600 (50% from the March high at .9599 and 2 equal legs from the May low at .9621).

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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