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USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

2015-04-17 19:43:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:
  • EURUSD behavior change on the horizon?
  • GBPUSD 2nd large range weekly reversal in recent weeks
  • USDCAD largest volume (FXCM) week ever

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-4/17 Webinar Archive

EUR/USD

Daily

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“EURUSD rolled over at slope resistance but several longer term technical observations are worthy of note; the rate found low at an important long term level (line off of 2008 and 2010 lows) and the ownership profile (as per COT) is at a record. The speculative crowd has never been more bearish…ever. Such conditions typically precede important reversals…although not necessarily right away. A break above the resistance lines (old support) would indicate that behavior has significantly changed and open up a run on 1.13.

GBP/USD

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“1.4350 remains of interest but daily and weekly divergence with momentum at price lows cast doubt on whether GBPUSD reaches that level.” The sharp turn higher (and pending weekly reversal) is promising for longer term bottoming prospects, especially in light of the mentioned divergence and 2 large range weekly reversals in the last 5 weeks.

AUD/USD

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“AUDUSD continues to trade between well-defined slope lines but beware of a possible broadening bottom (very difficult pattern to trade).”

-“Trade outside of the bearish upper parallel that has contained strength since late October would shift focus to a former support line (turned resistance in January) near .8180.” AUDUSD is pressing the mentioned upper parallel now…it’s decision time for AUDUSD.

NZD/USD

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“NZDUSD traded to the 61.8% retracement of its 3 year range today (.7929) and the next level of interest probably isn’t until the 2013 Labor Day gap at .7722. One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”

-The NZDUSD double top has failed to this point but slope resistance comes into play more or less at the current level and near .7800.

USD/JPY

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“Continue to favor a broad range as 119.80-120.70 as resistance and 116.40-117.10 as support. A move through either one of these zones would define target zones of 124-128 and 110-114.”

-Near term, watch for resistance now near 120.08. The next support on a break would be the median line just above 117.

USD/CAD

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The breakdown from a 2 and a half month topping pattern could ‘kick-off’ a much larger decline but near term focus is on early congestion from 1.1931 to 1.2046. There is slope support (former resistance) at the latter level next week. Of note as well is that this volume (FXCM) this week was a record. Volume of this magnitude can indicate near term capitulation. 1.23 is an important trading pivot.

USD/CHF

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“USDCHF has reversed from 9 year trendline resistance. Focus is on the median line (about .9300) that extends off of the 2012 high. This line crosses through highs in 2013 and the October 2014 low. The 52 week MA is near this line as well.” This video explains more.

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