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NZDUSD Top Possibly in Place for Next Bear Leg

NZDUSD Top Possibly in Place for Next Bear Leg

2014-10-24 17:39:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:
  • GBPUSD at a crossroads
  • USDJPY trades into Fibonacci resistance
  • NZDUSD next leg lower underway

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox thrice a week.

--Tradingideas are availabletoJ.S. Trade Desk members.

EUR/USD

Weekly

NZDUSD Top Possibly in Place for Next Bear Leg

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-BIG picture, monthly RSI has broken out of a triangle pattern. Sometimes, a pattern breakout in momentum (or OBV) precedes the breakout in price. The development’s implications are obviously significant.

-Near term, price action since the October low likely composes a 4th wave correction within a 5 wave decline from the May high. Allow for additional sideways trading in order to complete wave 4 before a new low in wave 5 targets 1.2400 or 1.2315.

GBP/USD

Weekly

NZDUSD Top Possibly in Place for Next Bear Leg

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-GBPUSD is at a crossroads. The trend is down against 1.6184 but recent activity warns of a turn. The rate carved a key reversal last week and action since the low is constructive (decline from 1.6184 found low at the 61.8% of prior rally). Exceeding 1.6184 would confirm a 3 week bottoming pattern and yield an objective near 1.65.

AUD/USD

Weekly

NZDUSD Top Possibly in Place for Next Bear Leg

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“The combination of the .9400 figure and weekly RSI failing near 60 indicates a lot of overhead to punch through. Since the 2011 top, each RSI failure near 60 has led to a top or topping process (range for several weeks then a breakdown...that may be the case now).”

-AUDUSD broke down from a head and shoulders top on 9/9. The target was reached 4 days after the pattern completed. Weakness has extended below the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2014 lows, warning of something much more significant on the downside. Near term measured objectives from the triangle that has been underway since 10/3 sit at .8500 and .8400. Exceeding .8900 would open up .9020/70 and delay the immediate bearish outcome.

NZD/USD

Weekly

NZDUSD Top Possibly in Place for Next Bear Leg

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st. The rate reversed this week from pips below the record high and above the mentioned line.”

-The gap from Labor Day 2013 has held as support but this week’s spike into .8034 (just shy of the February low at .8050) probably completed 3 weeks of consolidation. In other words, start looking lower again. Ultimately, weakness below .7370 would confirm a double top with an objective of .5898.

USD/JPY

Weekly

NZDUSD Top Possibly in Place for Next Bear Leg

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“5 waves up from the 2011 low are counted which raises the risk of a sharp reversal lower from the trendline that extends off of the 2001 and 2007 highs. 106.80 and 105.40 are reaction levels (support).”

--Former resistance at 105.43 served as support and USDJPY has responded to the 61.8% retracement of the decline. Another down leg is favored given the impulsive nature of the drop. Resistance extends from the current level to 108.87.

USD/CAD

Weekly

NZDUSD Top Possibly in Place for Next Bear Leg

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-USDCAD traded to its best levels since July 2009 this week but finished in the middle of its range for the week. The close and weak momentum profile casts doubt regarding the validity of the breakout but continue to look higher as long as price is above 1.1080. The rate also encounters potential resistance near 1.1450 from the upward sloping line that connects the October and 2011 and March 2014 highs.

USD/CHF

Weekly

NZDUSD Top Possibly in Place for Next Bear Leg

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“USDCHF weakness has reset the market for another rally attempt. Remember, USDCHF broke above the trendline that extends off of the 2001 and 2010 highs. Like EURUSD, USDCHF monthly RSI broke from a potentially long term basing pattern. As long as .9358 holds, look higher.” .9740 could serve as resistance for the next top.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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