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USDJPY Breakout and AUD Relative Strength Opportunities

USDJPY Breakout and AUD Relative Strength Opportunities

2014-08-22 19:32:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:
  • EURUSD 1.3017 could produce an important low if reached
  • USDJPY breaks out
  • AUD relative strength

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox thrice a week.

--Tradingideas are availabletoJ.S. Trade Desk members.

EUR/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Breakout and AUD Relative Strength Opportunities

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“Long term, a failed breakout and top would keep with the pattern of 3 year cycle tops. 1.3750 is an important reference point (year open).”

-The break of 1.3476 completed a topping process with targets of 1.3294 (origin of diagonal), 1.3209 (2 equal legs), and 1.3012 (head and shoulders target). 1.3476-1.3512 is now resistance and 1.3017 (50% retracement intersects with reaction area) is a target.

GBP/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Breakout and AUD Relative Strength Opportunities

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“Of note is a weekly outside reversal and weekly RSI rolling over from above 70 this week. Prior instances of RSI rolling over (2004, 2006, and 2007) from above 70 indicated tops of at least several months.”

-GBPUSD has traded back to the year open (1.6565). 1.6565 to the March low (1.6464) forms a support zone for a bounce. If this zone gives way then then major support comes in from the 3 peaks in 2012 and this year’s low at 1.6250-1.6340. Expect resistance on any rebound, whether in the coming weeks or months, at 1.6820/90.

AUD/USD

Weekly

USDJPY Breakout and AUD Relative Strength Opportunities

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“The combination of the .9400 figure and weekly RSI failing near 60 indicates a lot of overhead to punch through. Since the 2011 top, each RSI failure near 60 has led to a top or topping process (range for several weeks then a breakdown...that may be the case now).”

-The failure of AUDUSD to break down in the face of a broad USD advance underscores bullish potential. Any reversal towards USD weakness could facilitate the next leg in the bull trend that began at the January low. .9200 needs to hold in order to look higher.

NZD/USD

Monthly

USDJPY Breakout and AUD Relative Strength Opportunities

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“Don’t forget about the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st. The rate reversed this week from pips below the record high and above the mentioned line.”

-Above .8534 is needed in order to suggest that at least a minor low is in place. Look lower as long as price is below that level. Exceeding .8534 would shift focus to .8600/50. I’ve highlighted monthly key reversals (filtered with a range condition). Focus on .8250/75 as support.

USD/JPY

Weekly

USDJPY Breakout and AUD Relative Strength Opportunities

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“The miserable trading conditions in USDJPY are probably explained by its long term Elliott wave position. That is, the rate has been mired in a corrective 4th wave all year. The good news is that wave 4 probably ends soon. Keep focused on the Elliott channel. The line crosses from about 100 to 100.75 for the remainder of August.” Forget the Elliott channel for now and treat wave 4 as complete as long as price is above 102.50 (103.00/30 is support). That means new highs in wave 5 (then risk of a major decline but don’t forget that ‘5ths’ can extend). 104.75 is a near term target.

USD/CAD

Weekly

USDJPY Breakout and AUD Relative Strength Opportunities

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-“USDCAD has fallen apart which ironically means it is probably going to find some sort of low soon. The rate is nearing important price levels. The 2011 high at 1.0657 and current year open at 1.0634 are possible supports. The line that extends off of the 2012 and September 2013 lows is at about 1.0607 next week. This level is in line with the July 2013 high at 1.0608.” USDCAD ended up finding low at 1.0620.

-The USDCAD advance from the July low is impulsive and may find resistance near 1.1025/50 (61.8% and June high) before correcting lower.

USD/CHF

Weekly

USDJPY Breakout and AUD Relative Strength Opportunities

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-USDCHF is trading pips shy of its YTD high but has pushed above the trendline that extends off of the 2010 and 2013 highs (there is a trendline that extends off of the 1985 and 2001 highs near .9400). The nearly 30 year trendline splits the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the decline from the 2012 high (.9335 and .9485). The rate could press higher into month end towards this zone before reversing.

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