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NZDUSD Outside Week Reversal May Mark Important Top

NZDUSD Outside Week Reversal May Mark Important Top

2014-04-06 19:16:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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--Friday’s DailyFX Plus webinar (video is titled Jamie’s Trading Webinar 04-04-2014).

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox once a day.

--Trading specifics are availabletoJ.S. Trade Desk members.

EUR/USD

Weekly

NZDUSD-Outside-Week-Reversal-May-Mark-Important-Top_body_Picture_7.png, NZDUSD Outside Week Reversal May Mark Important Top

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-EURUSD failure to hold above the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2011 highs is well documented. As mentioned the last several weeks, “the development could mark an important change in conditions. A break below 1.3642 would make a stronger case for a larger topping process.”

-A larger top appears be brewing, respect bounce potential into 1.3750.

GBP/USD

Monthly

NZDUSD-Outside-Week-Reversal-May-Mark-Important-Top_body_Picture_6.png, NZDUSD Outside Week Reversal May Mark Important Top

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-A weekly key reversal the week that ended 2/21 and a doji the week that ended 3/7 are warnings of a top. The rate bounced from the line that extends off of the November and February lows, keeping near term upside pressure intact.

-Given extreme COT readings, don’t forget about the reversal characteristics seen at the February top. One can’t dismiss the trendline hold last week either. Tis a battle between bullish and bearish interests.

AUD/USD

Weekly

NZDUSD-Outside-Week-Reversal-May-Mark-Important-Top_body_Picture_5.png, NZDUSD Outside Week Reversal May Mark Important Top

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-AUDUSD has broken out. The head and shoulders measured target is .9500/11 but there a good deal of levels before then that could inspire a reaction. The levels in question are .9320s (see June-July levels) and .9386-.9405 (2009 high / 2011 low).

-.9150/90 is estimated support.

NZD/USD

Weekly

NZDUSD-Outside-Week-Reversal-May-Mark-Important-Top_body_Picture_4.png, NZDUSD Outside Week Reversal May Mark Important Top

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-NZDUSD made on outside week reversal. The event occurs from just above the 2013 high and near the line that extends off of the 1996 and 2007 highs. That line crosses through the 2008, 2011, and 2014 highs as well. In 2011 (record free float high), the rate surged through the line in late July before topping on August 1st. It’s possible that April 1st marks the high for the move in this case.

USD/JPY

Weekly

NZDUSD-Outside-Week-Reversal-May-Mark-Important-Top_body_Picture_3.png, NZDUSD Outside Week Reversal May Mark Important Top

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-USDJPY was unable to hold its breakout above the March high. Still, respect upside potential early in the week in order to complete 5 waves up from the March low.

-Longer term, the trend is up but there is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.

USD/CAD

Weekly

NZDUSD-Outside-Week-Reversal-May-Mark-Important-Top_body_Picture_2.png, NZDUSD Outside Week Reversal May Mark Important Top

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.

-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.

-The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position. Watch for support at 1.0985 next week. Failure to hold 1.0909 would delay the bull and open up 1.0736 (December high).

USD/CHF

Weekly

NZDUSD-Outside-Week-Reversal-May-Mark-Important-Top_body_Picture_1.png, NZDUSD Outside Week Reversal May Mark Important Top

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-USDCHF (and EURUSD for that matter) made ‘intra-month reversals’ in March. Some reversals come with a bang and some come with a whimper. Exceeding the line that extends off of the July and January highs would brighten the longer term bull case. The rate is at that line now.

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