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USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

2014-03-07 20:43:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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  • EURUSD support is now 1.3815
  • AUDUSD closing in on long term resistance
  • USDJPY could find minor top early next week

--Friday’s DailyFX Plus webinar (video is titled Jamie’s Trading Webinar 03-07-2014).

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox once a day.

--Trading specifics are availabletoJ.S. Trade Desk members.

EUR/USD

Weekly

USDJPY_Runs_into_a_Wall_Look_for_a_Dip_body_Picture_7.png, USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-EURUSD has broken above the trendline that connects the 2008 and 2011 highs and traded to its highest level since October 2011. Former resistance is now support at 1.3713/30. The top side of the broken trendline reinforces this level as support.

-1.4074 is a reaction level / target for next week. This is where the rally from the November low would consist of 2 equal legs. Channel resistance also rests up there. Looking farther out, 1.4300-1.4450 is probably the topping zone for the move that started at the July 2012 low. It’s worth noting that important tops have formed in April before (being early is as bad as being late).

GBP/USD

Weekly

USDJPY_Runs_into_a_Wall_Look_for_a_Dip_body_Picture_6.png, USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-GBPUSD found support a month ago from former resistance levels; specifically the October high and top side of the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. The rally from the level signals a significant breakout. That doesn’t mean that the breakout can’t fail of course.

-GBPUSD traded to the highest level since November 2009 but did form a weekly key reversal 2 weeks ago and a doji this week. The developments could be warnings that the breakout will fail.

AUD/USD

Weekly

USDJPY_Runs_into_a_Wall_Look_for_a_Dip_body_Picture_5.png, USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-The next major target in AUDUSD is .7937. This target is determined by the .8847-.9757 range (.8847 – (.9757-.8847). Interestingly, the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2001 low registers at .7927. ‘Chartwise’, the 2010 low is at .8067.

-AUDUSD is nearing the .9166-.9267 resistance zone. The bottom of the zone intersects with trendline resistance (off of the April and October 2013 highs) next week.

NZD/USD

Weekly

USDJPY_Runs_into_a_Wall_Look_for_a_Dip_body_Picture_4.png, USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-NZDUSD spent much of the week above the line that extends off of the April and October 2013 highs but closed the week at the line. The development could indicate a false break.

-A large rang key reversal unfolded on Friday. Still, weakness below .8242 is needed to suggest that the path is lower.

USD/JPY

Weekly

USDJPY_Runs_into_a_Wall_Look_for_a_Dip_body_Picture_3.png, USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-USDJPY tested the underside of the trendline that connects the lows from November 2012 and October 2013 (again). Friday’s high is also in line with the May 2013 high. January lows rest at 103.85. Friday’s reaction paints a picture of a market at risk of a pullback.

-102.50 is now support. Failure to hold that level risks a drop into 101.65.

-Longer term, there is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.

USD/CAD

Weekly

USDJPY_Runs_into_a_Wall_Look_for_a_Dip_body_Picture_2.png, USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.

-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.

-The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position.

USD/CHF

Weekly

USDJPY_Runs_into_a_Wall_Look_for_a_Dip_body_Picture_1.png, USDJPY Runs into a Wall; Look for a Dip

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-USDCHF has broken to its lowest level since October 2011. A massive head and shoulders top is completed (again) after a false break in October, and neckline retest in January. There is no chart support until .8566 (October 2011 low) and the head and shoulders target is .8071.

-Use .8930 as a pivot. In other words, price needs to exceed .8930 in order to negate downside bearish implications from the break.

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