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EURUSD at Most Important Juncture in Years

EURUSD at Most Important Juncture in Years

2014-02-28 20:46:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:
  • EURUSD pressing major market level
  • AUDUSD weakest of the bunch
  • USDCHF trades to lowest since October 2011

--Friday’s DailyFX Plus webinar (video is titled Jamie’s Trading Webinar 02-28-2014).

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox once a day.

--Trading specifics are availabletoJ.S. Trade Desk members.

EUR/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_at_Most_Important_Juncture_in_Years_body_Picture_7.png, EURUSD at Most Important Juncture in Years

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-EURUSD is at the trendline that connects the 2008 and 2011 highs. Exceeding this level could trigger a significant breakout. Initial resistance would be 1.4250-1.4310. Remember, 1.3745 was previously important as resistance so this level may now serve as support.

-The presence of the trendline along with former highs at 1.3811 to 1.3831 is still resistance (now). Below 1.3642 is needed to suggest that the market has topped.

GBP/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_at_Most_Important_Juncture_in_Years_body_Picture_6.png, EURUSD at Most Important Juncture in Years

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-GBPUSD found support 3 weeks ago from former resistance levels; specifically the October high and top side of the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. The rally from the level signals a significant breakout. That doesn’t mean that the breakout can’t fail of course.

-GBPUSD traded to the highest level since November 2009 but did form a weekly key reversal. The development could be the earliest warning that the breakout will fail.

AUD/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_at_Most_Important_Juncture_in_Years_body_Picture_5.png, EURUSD at Most Important Juncture in Years

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The next major target in AUDUSD is .7937. This target is determined by the .8847-.9757 range (.8847 – (.9757-.8847). Interestingly, the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2001 low registers at .7927. ‘Chartwise’, the 2010 low is at .8067.

-The largest advance since the October top is underway. The advance is impulsive (5 waves). The implications are for a pullback into .8820/30 before another rally attempt towards .9166-.9267. The trendline that extends off of the April and October highs crosses .9166 in mid-March.

NZD/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_at_Most_Important_Juncture_in_Years_body_Picture_4.png, EURUSD at Most Important Juncture in Years

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-NZDUSD is testing the line that extends off of the October and January highs. The next possible resistance area is the line that extends off of the April and October 2013 highs. This line is near .8450 next week. Exceeding that level opens up .8543 and .8584.

-Last week’s outside week (higher high and higher low) is negated. Weakness below .8242 is needed to suggest that the path is lower towards .8050.

USD/JPY

Weekly

EURUSD_at_Most_Important_Juncture_in_Years_body_Picture_3.png, EURUSD at Most Important Juncture in Years

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-USDJPY finishes the week right below the trendline (again) that connects the lows from November 2012 and October 2013 (again). The February low remains critical to the near term bull case.

-102.85/93 needs to give way in order to open up 103.44/90 (viewed as strong resistance).

-Longer term, there is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.

USD/CAD

Weekly

EURUSD_at_Most_Important_Juncture_in_Years_body_Picture_2.png, EURUSD at Most Important Juncture in Years

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.

-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.

-The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position.

-USDCAD has reacted at support.

USD/CHF

Weekly

EURUSD_at_Most_Important_Juncture_in_Years_body_Picture_1.png, EURUSD at Most Important Juncture in Years

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-USDCHF has broken to its lowest level since October 2011. A massive head and shoulders top is completed (again) after a false break in October, and neckline retest in January. There is no chart support until .8566 (October 2011 low) and the head and shoulders target is .8071.

-Use this week’s high as a pivot. In other words, price needs to exceed .8929 in order to negate downside bearish implications from the break.

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