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EURUSD Could Top Above 1.3800

EURUSD Could Top Above 1.3800

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

--Friday’s DailyFX Plus webinar (video is titled Jamie’s Trading Webinar 02-21-2014).

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox once a day.

--Trading specifics are availabletoJ.S. Trade Desk members.

EUR/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_Could_Face_Major_Headwinds_Above_1.3800_body_Picture_7.png, EURUSD Could Top Above 1.3800

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-EURUSD remains capped by the trendline that connects the 2008 and 2011 highs (exceeding that level could trigger a breakout-first resistance would be 1.4250-1.4310). The underside of the line that extends off of the September and November lows is being tested as resistance now.

-The rally from the February low consists of 2 equal legs (2 equal legs would be exact at 1.3768…high right now is 1.3772). Right now, the market is trading around the important 1.3744 level. 1.3744 is the 12/27 close (high so far for the move). Former highs at 1.3811 to 1.3831 and the line that extends off of the 2008, 2011 and December highs remain of interest as a reversal zone if reached. Below 1.3636 would suggest that the market has topped.

-The late December failure does raise the possibility of a double top with the October and December highs. The pattern would trigger below 1.3294 and yield a 1.2757 objective. This level is in in line with the 2013 low.

GBP/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_Could_Face_Major_Headwinds_Above_1.3800_body_Picture_6.png, EURUSD Could Top Above 1.3800

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-GBPUSD found support 2 weeks ago from former resistance levels; specifically the October high and top side of the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. The rally from the level signals a significant breakout. That doesn’t mean that the breakout can’t fail of course.

-GBPUSD traded to the highest level since November 2009 but did form a weekly key reversal. The development could be the earliest warning that the breakout will fail.

AUD/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_Could_Face_Major_Headwinds_Above_1.3800_body_Picture_5.png, EURUSD Could Top Above 1.3800

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The next major target in AUDUSD is .7937. This target is determined by the .8847-.9757 range (.8847 – (.9757-.8847). Interestingly, the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2001 low registers at .7927. ‘Chartwise’, the 2010 low is at .8067.

-The largest advance since the October top is underway. The advance is impulsive (5 waves). The implications are for a pullback into .8820/30 before another rally attempt towards .9166-.9267. The trendline that extends off of the April and October highs crosses .9166 in mid-March.

NZD/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_Could_Face_Major_Headwinds_Above_1.3800_body_Picture_4.png, EURUSD Could Top Above 1.3800

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-NZDUSD reversed from a trendline confluence defined by the line that extends off of the October and January highs as well as the underside of the line that extends off of the August and November lows.

-The rate formed an outside week (higher high and higher low). Such a reaction can denote an important event (a top in this case). The outside week is also useful as a point of reference.

USD/JPY

Weekly

EURUSD_Could_Face_Major_Headwinds_Above_1.3800_body_Picture_3.png, EURUSD Could Top Above 1.3800

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-USDJPY finishes the week right below the trendline that connects the lows from November 2012 and October 2013 (again). The bearish engulfing pattern seen last week is negated by a bullish engulfing pattern this week. As such, view the February low as important to the near term bull case.

-102.85/93 is a level that may provoke a reaction (pullback). This level is defined by the 1/13 low, 1/30 and 1/31 highs.

-Longer term, there is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.

USD/CAD

Weekly

EURUSD_Could_Face_Major_Headwinds_Above_1.3800_body_Picture_2.png, EURUSD Could Top Above 1.3800

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.

-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.

-The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position.

-USDCAD has reacted at support.

USD/CHF

Weekly

EURUSD_Could_Face_Major_Headwinds_Above_1.3800_body_Picture_1.png, EURUSD Could Top Above 1.3800

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-The USDCHF may have completed a corrective decline from the 2012 high in late December. The decline is in 3 waves, channels in a corrective manner (connect the origin of waves A and C and project a parallel from the terminus of wave A to project the terminus of wave C), and consists of 2 equal waves (would be exactly equal at .8888…the lowest weekly close was actually .8885).

-The market must stay above the December low in order to maintain a constructive longer term bias. Failure to hold could result in a drop towards .8566. USDCHF needs to overcome .8940 in order to flip the near term picture. .8830 is the last level before the low could produce a low.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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