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EURUSD Rare Technical Event Unfolds; Big Move Coming?

EURUSD Rare Technical Event Unfolds; Big Move Coming?

2014-02-07 21:56:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:
  • EURUSD alternates up and down weeks for last 9 weeks
  • USDJPY ends the week at long term trendline
  • USDCAD trades into support

--Friday’s DailyFX Plus webinar (video is titled Jamie’s Webinar 02-7-2014).

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox once a day.

--Trading specifics are availabletoJ.S. Trade Desk members.

EUR/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_Rare_Technical_Event_Unfolds_Big_Move_Coming_body_Picture_7.png, EURUSD Rare Technical Event Unfolds; Big Move Coming?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-EURUSD remains capped by the trendline that connects the 2008 and 2011 highs. The break below the trendline that extends off of the September and November lows increases the probability that the late December high is significant.

-The late December failure also raises the possibility of a double top with the October and December highs. The pattern would trigger below 1.3294 and yield a 1.2757 objective. This level is in in line with the 2013 low.

-The rate ends the week just below resistance from the line that extends off of the 12/27 and 1/24 highs. 1.3527 is possible support.

GBP/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_Rare_Technical_Event_Unfolds_Big_Move_Coming_body_Picture_6.png, EURUSD Rare Technical Event Unfolds; Big Move Coming?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-After trading to its highest level since April 2011 last week, GBPUSD carved a large outside day reversal. This is the kind of action that could lead to a larger top. Weakness below the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs and specifically 1.6308 would suggest as much.

-At the same time, GBPUSD found support this week from former resistance levels; specifically the October high and top side of the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. Key support and resistance next week are 1.6308 and 1.6495.

AUD/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_Rare_Technical_Event_Unfolds_Big_Move_Coming_body_Picture_5.png, EURUSD Rare Technical Event Unfolds; Big Move Coming?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-The next major target in AUDUSD is .7937. This target is determined by the .8847-.9757 range (.8847 – (.9757-.8847). Interestingly, the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2001 low registers at .7927. ‘Chartwise’, the 2010 low is at .8067. Significant demand may not exist until this zone.

-The rate carved a doji on Friday after trading into the 12/6 low of .8989. The 1/3 high at .9004 is possible resistance along with the line that extends off of the December and January highs. Failure to stay below .9085 would open up .9167-.9267.

-If the trend has turned higher then expect .8870 to hold as support next week.

NZD/USD

Weekly

EURUSD_Rare_Technical_Event_Unfolds_Big_Move_Coming_body_Picture_4.png, EURUSD Rare Technical Event Unfolds; Big Move Coming?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-So much for the break below .8100. NZDUSD took back all of last week’s drop (mostly on Tuesday) this week. Price is back in the middle of the range…within the larger range.

-.8335/77 is possible resistance. I’d expect support at .8237.

USD/JPY

Weekly

EURUSD_Rare_Technical_Event_Unfolds_Big_Move_Coming_body_Picture_3.png, EURUSD Rare Technical Event Unfolds; Big Move Coming?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“USDJPY is respecting the gap from October 2008 at 105.30. This level and the outside day seen on January 2nd should at least warn of a pause in the uptrend.”

-USDJPY finishes the week right at the trendline that connects the lows from November 2012 and October 2013. The decline from the top is a wedge, so a return to 103.85 or even 104.80 could be in store sometime this month. Near term, price ends the week at resistance (102.24/50). I’d expect support at 101.63/77.

-Longer term, there is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.

USD/CAD

Weekly

EURUSD_Rare_Technical_Event_Unfolds_Big_Move_Coming_body_Picture_2.png, EURUSD Rare Technical Event Unfolds; Big Move Coming?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.

-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.

-The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position.

-USDCAD is at support now.

USD/CHF

Weekly

EURUSD_Rare_Technical_Event_Unfolds_Big_Move_Coming_body_Picture_1.png, EURUSD Rare Technical Event Unfolds; Big Move Coming?

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-The USDCHF may have completed a corrective decline from the 2012 high in late December. The decline is in 3 waves, channels in a corrective manner (connect the origin of waves A and C and project a parallel from the terminus of wave A to project the terminus of wave C), and consists of 2 equal waves (would be exactly equal at .8888…the lowest weekly close was actually .8885).

-The break above the trendline that originates at the July high adds credence to a larger trend change but the rate remains capped by the June and August lows. Important levels in the near term include .8940 and .9100.

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