News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Another day of pingpong halts for GME already
  • The US Dollar has now slumped after its early morning strength, with the $DXY falling from around 90.80 to currently trade below 90.50. $USD https://t.co/9P6gO3HaZZ
  • GameStop is pushing fresh record highs just north of 480. And yet, the other supercharged shortsqueezes - AMC, BB, BBY, EXPR, etc - are pulling back a little but still very volatility
  • The DAX 30 is struggling to recover from yesterday’s selloff as risk-off sentiment took control of the markets. Get your stock market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/EFVvYy7ypH https://t.co/BjEB5XgGUW
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 5.19% Gold: 0.75% Oil - US Crude: 0.75% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lwGHX3NAJm
  • 🇺🇸 CB Leading Index MoM (DEC) Actual: 0.3% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-28
  • 🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM (DEC) Actual: 1.6% Expected: 1.9% Previous: -12.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-28
  • The first look at US GDP in Q4 saw an increase of 4%, printing in line with expectations. However, while adding to the record mechanical increase in Q3. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/65o9MC8Xar https://t.co/AxzROiHqPw
  • 🇺🇸 CB Leading Index MoM (DEC) Actual: 0.3% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-28
  • Join us for a special #webinar at 11:00 AM EST/16:00 GMT where you can learn how to identify price trends with trader sentiment. Register here: https://t.co/f3KVVN9eyy https://t.co/fNFjQdbLKY
Monitor Yen Crosses for Breakouts; S&P 500 Monthly Key Reversal

Monitor Yen Crosses for Breakouts; S&P 500 Monthly Key Reversal

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

3 month triangles in USDJPY and EURJPY may give way to breakouts although the proximity to the apex in both warns of false moves. A rare monthly key reversal unfolded in the S&P 500 and USDZAR volatility remains favorable for active traders.

Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

USD/JPY and Nikkei 225

Daily

Monitor_Yen_Crosses_for_Breakouts_SP_500_Monthly_Key_Reversal_body_usdjpy.png, Monitor Yen Crosses for Breakouts; S&P 500 Monthly Key Reversal

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

- USDJPY trade since 5/22 may take the form of a triangle, a common continuation pattern.

- The apex of the triangle (black lines drawn off of highs/lows and red lines drawn off of closes) occurs 9/26, 91 trading days from the 5/22 top. Today was the 72nd day of consolidation, which is more than 75% of the distance from the top to the apex. The risk of a false breakout increases after the 75% point however (Edwards and Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends).

- At turns, the Nikkei 225 (NK) and USDJPY have diverged (failed to confirm price extremes). Both topped on 5/22. At the June low, the USDJPY low wasn’t confirmed by a new NK low. At the July high, the NK high wasn’t confirmed by a new USDJPY high. At the August low, the NK low wasn’t confirmed by a new USDJPY low.

-The Nikkei decline from the July high may take the form of a wedge (in Elliott, this would be A-B-C with wave C as a diagonal). Such patterns often give way to sharp reversals.

Strategy – Monitor for swing trade breakout above 99. Also, support before the August low is 97.60 and 96.70.

EUR/JPY

Daily

Monitor_Yen_Crosses_for_Breakouts_SP_500_Monthly_Key_Reversal_body_eurjpy.png, Monitor Yen Crosses for Breakouts; S&P 500 Monthly Key Reversal

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

- EURJPY trade since 5/22 may also take the form of a triangle, a common continuation pattern. The risk of a false breakout due to the proximity of the apex applies to EURJPY in the same manner as USDJPY.

-Triangle support crosses 129 early next week. The close of the August low day (8/12) is 128.87 and is also possible support.

-The decline from 132.42 (8/23 high) would divide into Fibonacci proportion at 128.84.

Strategy – Monitor for a breakout / monitor for support just below 129 for long entry. Beware a false break, especially if lower. 127.50 (close of the large range day on 6/13) is possible support below the August low of 127.96.

S&P 500 2009-Present

Daily

Monitor_Yen_Crosses_for_Breakouts_SP_500_Monthly_Key_Reversal_body_inx.png, Monitor Yen Crosses for Breakouts; S&P 500 Monthly Key Reversal

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

- The S&P 500 traded to the trendline that extends off of the November 2012 and June 2013 lows. Price has touched the line 2 of the last 4 days.

-8/27 NYSE TRIN at the close was 2.66 (previous instances going back to the 2009 low indicated in red-the chart below plots instances from 2005 to 2009). Extremely high TRIN readings can indicate panic lows or the beginning of larger declines; thus the current juncture is CRITICAL.

-Failure to hold and 1600 (April high at 1597 and 6/6 low at 1598) will be seen in short order.

-Monthly JS Spike (2 charts down…key reversal with range >= 12 month ATR). In the last decade, bearish spikes have led to at least several months of consolidation. The most recent instance was July 2007. That high was revisited in October 2007 before the crisis.

Strategy – Dangerous level to operate. Panic lows, if even as just part of a larger topping process, could come near 1590-1600. If September starts off higher, then will look for a lower high.

S&P 500 2005-2009

Daily

Monitor_Yen_Crosses_for_Breakouts_SP_500_Monthly_Key_Reversal_body_inx_1.png, Monitor Yen Crosses for Breakouts; S&P 500 Monthly Key Reversal

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

S&P 500

Monthly

Monitor_Yen_Crosses_for_Breakouts_SP_500_Monthly_Key_Reversal_body_inx_2.png, Monitor Yen Crosses for Breakouts; S&P 500 Monthly Key Reversal

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USD/ZAR

Weekly

Monitor_Yen_Crosses_for_Breakouts_SP_500_Monthly_Key_Reversal_body_usdzar.png, Monitor Yen Crosses for Breakouts; S&P 500 Monthly Key Reversal

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

- USDZAR traded to its highest level since March 2009 this week before closing near the low for the week.

- JS Spikes (see below chart) formed on 8/22 and 8/28. I classify these as key reversals from at least a 20 day price extreme (in this case it was a 4+ year price extreme) with a range at least as great as the 20 day ATR. Previous instances are circled on the chart.

Strategy – Looking for a high next week. 10.31-10.33 is the estimated resistance zone. First big support is probably 10.10. Must keep an open mind here with respect to larger bull trend and be ready to cover and go long on approach into confluence of trendline support (see below).

USD/ZAR

Daily

Monitor_Yen_Crosses_for_Breakouts_SP_500_Monthly_Key_Reversal_body_usdzar_1.png, Monitor Yen Crosses for Breakouts; S&P 500 Monthly Key Reversal

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES