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EUR/USD Trades Below January Low as AUD/USD 1.0200 Battle Resumes

EUR/USD Trades Below January Low as AUD/USD 1.0200 Battle Resumes

2013-03-01 21:06:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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EURUSD

Weekly

EURUSD_Trades_Below_January_Low_as_AUDUSD_10200_Battle_Resumes_body_eurusd.png, EUR/USD Trades Below January Low as AUD/USD 1.0200 Battle Resumes

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREX Observation: The EURUSD took out the January low of 12997 and traded as low as 12965 before rebounding back above 13000 on Friday. The extent of weakness from the February high and structure (impulsive case can be made) make it likely that a significant (possibly for rest of the year) top is in place for the EURUSD but near term technicals (240 minute RSI holding 30 and market response below 12996) suggest a bottom is near. If we go any lower, then keep an eye on the trendline confluence and 50% retracement of the advance from 12041 at 12875.

FOREX Trading Implication: When such an advertised level (January low) gives way, I’m wary of chasing the break. A rebound back to the well-defined 13300 isn’t out of the question. The Daily Technicals will follow the near term picture.

GBPUSD

Weekly

EURUSD_Trades_Below_January_Low_as_AUDUSD_10200_Battle_Resumes_body_gbpusd.png, EUR/USD Trades Below January Low as AUD/USD 1.0200 Battle Resumes

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREX Observation: After holding the entire week, the Sunday open in GBPUSD gave way. As focused on the Daily Technicals, the longer term trend is probably down towards the 2009 low at 13500 but a rally back to 15320 or even 15400 would fit within the confines of a normal corrective advance. I’m unsure of that rally comes from here or from 14950 (channel and pivot from July 2010).” We got our answer today as 14950 was nearly reached.

FOREX Trading Implication: Looking for a low near 14950. An inside day Monday would also present a bullish setup for 15330+.

AUDUSD

Weekly

EURUSD_Trades_Below_January_Low_as_AUDUSD_10200_Battle_Resumes_body_audusd.png, EUR/USD Trades Below January Low as AUD/USD 1.0200 Battle Resumes

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREX Observation: It’s a waiting game with the AUDUSD. Each drop is followed quickly by congestion with the net result being a grind lower. Keep in mind recent comments that “it’s possible that this is the beginning of the larger AUDUSD triangle E wave towards 9800-9900. The most aggressive AUDUSD target is 9700. This objective is reached by extending the 10148-10598 range from 10148 (10148 needs to break first of course).” Weakness may accelerate with price below the 200 day average.

FOREX Trading Implication: 10200 is clearly significant. Once (if) this level is broken then I don’t expect much in the way at 10148 (October low) since the battle that was needed would have already taken place at 10200. Remaining bearish against 10340…and hoping to be able to move the stop down soon.

British Pound / Australian Dollar

Weekly

EURUSD_Trades_Below_January_Low_as_AUDUSD_10200_Battle_Resumes_body_gbpaud.png, EUR/USD Trades Below January Low as AUD/USD 1.0200 Battle Resumes

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREX Observation: Consider GBPAUD rather than EURAUD at this point given the EURGBP pattern. AUDUSD breakdown potential and GBPUSD recovery potential suggests a GBPAUD trade. There’s little need to overcomplicate things at this juncture; the GBPAUD is at the bottom of a 2 and a half year range and is going to complete a weekly key reversal as long as price closes above 14701 on Friday.

FOREX Trading Implication: I’m looking to buy above 14880. Above that level would entertain the possibility of an impulsive rally in a 3rd or C wave in the near term but the proximity of price to the bottom of the multiyear range is favorable for bulls longer term.

Euro / Swiss Franc

Weekly

EURUSD_Trades_Below_January_Low_as_AUDUSD_10200_Battle_Resumes_body_eurchf.png, EUR/USD Trades Below January Low as AUD/USD 1.0200 Battle Resumes

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREX Observation: Many complain that the EURCHF is too manipulated to trade. Hogwash I say. Even if it is, the manipulators must use trendline. The latest rebound comes right at the line that extends off of the November and late December lows. Bigger picture, I like the upside as per the break above 12100/50 and retest of that level as support. Strength through trendline resistance is needed to open up 12386 and 12440.

FOREX Trading Implication: Currently testing trendline resistance and the 20 day average, respect potential for several days of consolidation. In general, looking to get bullish following at least 1 day of sideways and a break above trendline resistance.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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