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New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

2012-02-03 21:52:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

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Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)

Daily Bars

New_Zealand_Dollar_Current_Technical_Condition_Similar_to_2007_body_usdollar.png, New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – Has tested and held the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the October low and series of November lows from 9665 to 9690. Remember, the probability of a reversal increases with the beginning of a new month. Yesterday’s inside day at support offers a bullish setup (stop under 9687).

Euro / US Dollar

Daily

New_Zealand_Dollar_Current_Technical_Condition_Similar_to_2007_body_eurusd.png, New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – Use the first day of the month as an opening range from which to play breakouts. That range is 13218-13025. An upside break targets the 50% retracement of the decline from the October high at 13435 and a downside break targets former resistance at 12875. Near term support for Sunday/Monday is 13120.

British Pound / US Dollar

Daily

New_Zealand_Dollar_Current_Technical_Condition_Similar_to_2007_body_gbpusd.png, New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – There is a bearish setup with Thursday’s inside day at the 2nd standard deviation band. A break below 15706 would shift focus to 15635 and 15515. Exceeding 15882 would negate the bearish setup and target the 200 day average at 15955 and 50% retracement of the decline from the 2011 top at 15989.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

New_Zealand_Dollar_Current_Technical_Condition_Similar_to_2007_body_audusd.png, New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe AUDUSD trading right at the September and October highs. Again, the first day of the month range (10740-10568) is critical to positioning for the larger move this month. The next upside levels of interest are a Fibonacci extension at 10825, and July support at 10900. A drop under 10568 is needed in order to trigger a bearish bias towards 10450.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

New_Zealand_Dollar_Current_Technical_Condition_Similar_to_2007_body_nzdusd.png, New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieDaily RSI is above 78! This is extremely rare and the most recent instances of RSI > 78 are 4/15/11 and then 7/23/07 and 7/24/07. In 2011, the NZDUSD fell 180 pips over the next 2 days before continuing its advance. The top in July 2007 led to a drop of nearly 1500 pips in 1 month. There is no guarantee of course that this will happen again but the specter of a 15 month head and shoulders top and 5 wave decline from the 2011 high are ‘big picture’ bearish evidence. Coming under 8212 would trigger a bearish bias.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily

New_Zealand_Dollar_Current_Technical_Condition_Similar_to_2007_body_usdjpy.png, New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The large USDJPY bearish triangle pattern remains intact but I do NOT advocate shorts at these levels. One, the specter of intervention looms (intervention during the Super Bowl anyone?). Two, the first day of month has held, which is statistically significant. As a trade, I like the upside on dips below 7640. Resistance early next week is 7685-7730.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily

New_Zealand_Dollar_Current_Technical_Condition_Similar_to_2007_body_usdcad.png, New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe USDCAD has reached the bottom of channel resistance and slid below the 200 day average (9935). The next level of interest on the downside is the October low at 9892, which is also the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the 2011 low. Expect a reaction from that level. Bears are in control below 10048.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Daily

New_Zealand_Dollar_Current_Technical_Condition_Similar_to_2007_body_usdchf.png, New Zealand Dollar Current Technical Condition Similar to 2007

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the EURUSD (but the inverse of course). Price has spent the last 6 days in a range and a break of 9250-9114 is needed in order to trigger the next larger move. Exceeding 9250 would shift focus to 9400 while dropping below 9114 targets the 11/30/11 low at 9065. In the case of a downside break, the move likely takes the form of a terminal thrust from a triangle.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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