Euro Attempting First Major Correction of New Year; Sell Rallies
EUR/USD: The recent break back above 1.2820 has triggered a double bottom on the daily chart, which opens additional corrective activity from here back into the 1.3000-1.3200 area over the coming sessions. Ultimately however, we retain a bearish bias and would be looking for opportunities to fade rallies in favor of underlying bear trend resumption and the next major downside extension below 1.2500.
USD/JPY:Despite the latest pullbacks, we continue to hold onto our constructive outlook while the market holds above 76.55 on a daily close basis. We believe that any setbacks from here should be limited in favor of a fresh upside extension back towards 79.55 over the coming weeks. Look for a break above 78.30 to confirm and accelerate, while only a daily close below 76.55 negates and gives reason for pause.
GBP/USD:The market has mostly been locked in some sideways chop over the past few weeks with any rallies very well capped ahead of 1.5800 and setbacks supported ahead of 1.5270. Until either side is broken, we would expect to see additional range trade. Therefore the preferred strategy is to look to buy range dips and sell by range highs. Only a weekly close above 1.5800 or below 1.5250 would give reason for outlook shift.
USD/CHF: This market remains very well supported on any form of a dip and looks poised for a fresh upside extension towards 1.0000 over the coming weeks. Look for a daily close back above 0.9600 to confirm and accelerate. Ultimately, any dips should be used as formidable buy opportunities, while only back below 0.9000 would ultimately threaten the recovery outlook.
AUD/USD: Any rallies are classified as corrective and we continue to see this market in the process of carving out a major top ahead of the next downside extension back below the critical lows from October at 0.9385. The 200-Day SMA comes in just over 1.0400 and this longer-term SMA should continue to act as a formidable resistance point. Back below 1.0145 will officially confirm outlook and accelerate declines back below parity. Only a daily close above the 200-Day SMA would give reason for pause.
NZD/USD: Any rallies are classified as corrective and we continue to see this market in the process of carving out a major longer-term top. From here, we look for the formation of the next major lower top somewhere around 0.8000 ahead of the next downside extension. Look for a break and close back under 0.7770 to help confirm bias and accelerate declines.
USD/CAD: Our constructive outlook remains intact with the market consolidating above parity ahead of an eventual retest of the key October highs by 1.0660. From here, look for any interday pullbacks to be very well supported above 1.0000 on a daily close basis, in favor of an eventual break and fresh upside extension beyond 1.0660. Initial resistance comes in at 1.0320. Back above 1.0660 opens a fresh upside extension towards 1.1000. Ultimately, only below 0.9900 would give reason for concern.
EUR/JPY:Although the market remains locked in an intense downtrend, daily studies are now severely oversold and warn of the potential for a decent corrective bounce over the coming days. Look for a break and close back above 98.50 to confirm and accelerate gains back above 100.00 before consideration of bear trend resumption. However, inability to establish above 98.50 will keep pressure on the downside and open fresh multi-year lows towards 95.00.
GBP/JPY: Overall, this market remains very well offered on any form of a rally, with the latest setbacks below 120.00 opening the door for a retest of the critical record lows from September by 116.80. However, at this point we would caution bears as daily studies are looking stretched and there is still risk for a more sizeable corrective bounce. Nevertheless, a break back above 120.30 would be required to relieve immediate downside pressures.
EUR/GBP: Although the market remains in a downtrend, there is some evidence of a bullish reversal in the works and we would look for additional upside back towards the 0.8500-0.8600 area over the coming days before considering the establishment of fresh short positions. Ultimately, we do like the downside prospects and see a move towards 0.8000 over the medium-term.
US DOLLAR INDEX: The market remains locked in a multi-day consolidation and continues to chop between the 9,800-10,100 area. Overall, we do retain a bullish outlook given the broader recovery structure out from a major base in 2011 and therefore recommend looking to buy on dips towards 9,800 or on a break back above 10,135.
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