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Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

2011-10-07 21:18:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Trend Table (# indicates trend)

MONTH

S3

S2

S1

PL

P

PH

R1

R2

R3

@ES

0

957.00

1029.50

1077.75

1154.00

1182.00

1210.00

1198.50

1271.00

1319.25

@US

1

114.16

120.09

128.06

130.42

132.29

134.16

141.97

147.91

155.88

AUDCHF

1

0.7155

0.7693

0.8232

0.8226

0.8408

0.8589

0.9310

0.9848

1.0387

AUDJPY

(1)

61.96

67.67

71.40

76.94

78.74

80.55

80.84

86.55

90.28

AUDUSD

(1)

0.8123

0.8872

0.9266

0.9890

1.0120

1.0351

1.0409

1.1158

1.1551

EURCHF

1

1.0007

1.0504

1.1350

1.1206

1.1536

1.1866

1.2693

1.3189

1.4036

EURJPY

(1)

91.58

96.76

100.60

106.25

108.04

109.84

109.63

114.81

118.66

EURUSD

(1)

1.2014

1.2688

1.3038

1.3581

1.3775

1.3969

1.4061

1.4735

1.5085

GBPUSD

(1)

1.4253

1.4790

1.5187

1.5713

1.5843

1.5973

1.6121

1.6658

1.7054

NZDUSD

(1)

0.6473

0.7055

0.7381

0.7884

0.8062

0.824

0.8289

0.8871

0.9196

USDCHF

1

0.6587

0.7149

0.8059

0.8124

0.8406

0.8688

0.9531

1.0092

1.1003

USDJPY

(1)

74.25

75.18

76.00

77.45

78.08

78.71

77.75

78.68

79.51

WEEK

S3

S2

S1

PL

P

PH

R1

R2

R3

@ES

1

985.00

1026.50

1090.75

1141.25

1145.83

1150.42

1196.50

1238.00

1302.25

@US

(1)

132.68

136.45

138.86

141.99

142.70

143.41

145.05

148.82

151.24

AUDCHF

1

0.8350

0.8511

0.8773

0.8957

0.8983

0.9009

0.9196

0.9358

0.9620

AUDJPY

(1)

68.86

70.45

72.69

75.18

75.45

75.71

76.52

78.11

80.35

AUDUSD

(1)

0.8983

0.9185

0.9474

0.9793

0.9822

0.9851

0.9966

1.0168

1.0458

EURCHF

1

1.19

1.201

1.2205

1.2237

1.2291

1.2345

1.2509

1.2619

1.2814

EURJPY

(1)

97.88

99.32

100.99

102.82

102.97

103.13

104.10

105.53

107.21

EURUSD

(1)

1.2796

1.2971

1.3175

1.341

1.344

1.3471

1.3554

1.3728

1.3932

GBPUSD

1

1.4964

1.5118

1.5338

1.5513

1.5529

1.5544

1.5713

1.5866

1.6087

NZDUSD

(1)

0.7168

0.7318

0.7497

0.7743

0.781

0.7877

0.7825

0.7975

0.8154

USDCHF

1

0.8885

0.8981

0.9123

0.9052

0.9123

0.9194

0.9361

0.9457

0.9599

USDJPY

1

75.66

76.08

76.41

76.68

76.70

76.71

77.16

77.58

77.91

DAY

S3

S2

S1

PL

P

PH

R1

R2

R3

@ES

1

1112.92

1128.83

1141.92

1140.13

1145.08

1150.04

1170.92

1186.83

1199.92

@US

(1)

137.55

138.89

140.08

141.69

142.09

142.50

142.61

143.95

145.15

AUDCHF

1

0.8813

0.8882

0.8958

0.8918

0.8957

0.8996

0.9104

0.9172

0.9249

AUDJPY

1

73.09

73.84

74.38

74.28

74.50

74.71

75.67

76.42

76.96

AUDUSD

1

0.9550

0.9639

0.9701

0.9683

0.9710

0.9737

0.9853

0.9941

1.0004

EURCHF

1

1.2264

1.23

1.235

1.232

1.2347

1.2373

1.2436

1.2472

1.2522

EURJPY

(1)

100.88

101.71

102.19

102.69

102.71

102.73

103.50

104.33

104.81

EURUSD

(1)

1.3155

1.3258

1.3318

1.338

1.3381

1.3382

1.3482

1.3585

1.3646

GBPUSD

1

1.5216

1.5319

1.5439

1.5458

1.5492

1.5526

1.5662

1.5765

1.5885

NZDUSD

0

0.7511

0.7593

0.7634

0.7674

0.7675

0.7675

0.7757

0.7838

0.7879

USDCHF

1

0.9037

0.9091

0.9178

0.923

0.9242

0.9253

0.9319

0.9374

0.9461

USDJPY

(1)

76.23

76.40

76.56

76.76

76.79

76.81

76.90

77.07

77.24

CHARTS

-price bar chart with Key Reversal (magenta)

-base currency 10 yr interest rate in green

-counter currency 10 yr interest rate in red

-interest rate differential in black

-indicator that measures change in interest rate differential and change in price

-dots on charts are highest and lowest readings of indicator in 13 and 52 weeks

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) & 2yr +10yr US yields

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_usd.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) has broken the internal wave 3 channel and focus is now on the more important Elliott channel that should help us identify the end of wave 4. The channel intersects 9834 early next week.

Euro / US Dollar

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_eurusd.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURUSD rally from the low reversed at 13520, which is former support and the confluence of several channels. Weakness should find support in the 13310/50 area (61.8% retracement of rally from 13241 and former resistance). There is also short term channel support to keep an eye on early next week near 13300. Till will tell if this week’s rally is the beginning of a move back to 13815 (July low) but I like trying the long side as close to 13300 as possible with stops under 13240 as per the early month reversal.

British Pound / US Dollar

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_gbpusd.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – Zoom out and view the last few years’ of price and it becomes apparent that the recent low is strong support. The area just above 15300 was a double bottom in late 2010 and congestion in early 2010 (today’s low is 15270). What’s more, RSI is at its most oversold reading since early 2010. A multi-month rally ensued before the GBPUSD fell to new lows. I can envision something similar here. I wrote yesterday that “I am more of the mind that a low will form as quite often happens following a ‘news’ announcement (announcement of BoE expanding asset purchase plan).” The GBPUSD has already reached 15578 (previous pivot high) and a reaction would see support from 15500 and 15460. A dip to there would present a long opportunity.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_audusd.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe AUDUSD has reversed from the long cited bearish target of 9400 and the channel that defines the trend from the July top. To review, 9400 is the 2009-2010 double top (2009 was slightly above 9400 and 2010 was slightly below). Short term structure is constructive, with the rally from the low unfolding in 5 waves. I favor buying dips next week into support. Levels to keep in mind are 9670, 9600, and 9540. This is the first bullish weekly key reversal since the May 2010 low.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_nzdusd.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie“The NZDUSD also reversed from the channel that defines the trend from the August top. Short term structure is identical to that of the AUDUSD (5 waves up from the low) and I therefore favor buying dips.” The NZDUSD hasn’t seen the advance that the AUDUSD has but the bias remains the same (buying dips). 7626 is support next week. It is noteworthy that the NZDUSD reversed off of the line that extends from the 2010 and 2011 lows.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_usdjpy.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – For the first time in months, USDJPY wave structure is clear. In fact, the low volatility environment suggests that a 4th wave is likely unfolding from the August low. 4th waves are usually triangles or flats and notoriously choppy and/or slow. In this case, a triangle is more likely given the current position of the Elliott channel. As such, the USDJPY range may actually tighten before the final break lower in a 5th wave to record lows. A reversal of epic proportions will then be expected.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_usdcad.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie“A move into the 10675-10700 area will complete a 3rd wave rally and give way to consolidation / weakness in a 4th wave. The USDCAD reversed just shy of the cited objective but the implications remain. That is, expect several weeks and perhaps a month of consolidation / weakness in a 4th wave. Support is 10385.” The 4th wave is playing out faster than expected, at least in price. Often, a fast first leg of the correction gives way to sideways trade for some time in order to correct the prior advance in time (triangle?). Watch the Elliott channel and 10142.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_usdchf.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe USDCHF made a key reversal Thursday at a level that is viewed as strong resistance. Highs and lows throughout the first quarter of 2011 surround the 9300 area which is why the key reversal should be taken seriously. The short term channel support is now of interest. Additional strength targets that channel that has been place since 2010. That line is at 9460 next week – right at the October 2010 low.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_eurjpy.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURJPY bounce from the low has encountered and reversed at the trendline that extends off of the 9/15 and 9/29 highs. Respect the downside from the current level as the rally from the low is in just 3 waves at this point and consists of 2 equal waves. A move above 10494 would break the series of lower highs and suggest that a more important low is indeed in place.

Euro / British Pound

Weekly

FXTeckWeekly100711_body_eurgbp.png, Weekly Key Reversals in Australian Dollar, CAD, and S&P

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURGBP bounced from its low September low (and trendline) this week, which keeps the range, primarily 8530-8800, intact. The shorter term bearish trendline can be used as a point of reference to structure trades with a stop above 8884 (look to short into channel resistance). It is worth mentioning that “price rallied into the 200 day (and 20 day) average yesterday and reversed just shy of its channel. A downside resolution is favored as long as price is below the July-September trendline.”

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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