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USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

2011-09-02 20:27:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Trend Table (# indicates trend)

MONTH

S3

S2

S1

PL

P

PH

R1

R2

R3

@ES

(1)

860.50

968.75

1093.25

1215.75

1216.42

1217.08

1326.00

1434.25

1558.75

@US

1

114.16

120.09

128.06

130.42

132.29

134.16

141.97

147.91

155.88

AUDCHF

0

0.5933

0.6537

0.7574

0.8158

0.8309

0.8460

0.9216

0.9821

1.0858

AUDJPY

(1)

67.33

71.92

77.00

82.09

82.10

82.11

86.67

91.25

96.33

AUDUSD

1

0.8929

0.9427

1.0067

1.0503

1.0571

1.0638

1.1205

1.1703

1.2343

EURCHF

(1)

0.8537

0.9302

1.0440

1.1206

1.1330

1.1455

1.2344

1.3110

1.4248

EURJPY

(1)

101.24

104.63

107.39

111.09

112.02

112.95

113.55

116.93

119.70

EURUSD

(1)

1.3605

1.3829

1.4099

1.4266

1.4300

1.4334

1.4593

1.4818

1.5088

GBPUSD

0

1.5528

1.5819

1.6035

1.6199

1.6216

1.6234

1.6542

1.6834

1.7049

NZDUSD

0

0.7175

0.7569

0.8055

0.8403

0.8449

0.8495

0.8934

0.9328

0.9814

USDCHF

0

0.6155

0.6611

0.7329

0.7809

0.7888

0.7968

0.8503

0.8959

0.9677

USDJPY

(1)

70.69

73.32

74.99

77.36

78.05

78.75

79.28

81.90

83.57

CHARTS

-price bar chart with Key Reversal (magenta)

-base currency 10 yr interest rate in green

-counter currency 10 yr interest rate in red

-interest rate differential in black

-indicator that measures change in interest rate differential and change in price

-dots on charts are highest and lowest readings of indicator in 13 and 52 weeks

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) & 2yr +10yr US yields

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_usd.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) failed at last week’s high, bringing forth the possibility (again) that the larger trend remains down towards fresh lows. Consider the possibility that a triangle is underway however and that a move above 9521 would complete wave E of the triangle. The USDOLLAR would then thrust lower (below 9321) into its final low.

Euro / US Dollar

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_eurusd.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – Structurally, I’ve maintained that the consolidation since the May high is just that – consolidation and most likely a triangle. However, there are warnings that a deeper setback is underway from 14548. Those warning signs include the trendline breaks on both price and RSI (notice that the RSI resistance line held). A 5 wave decline may be nearing completion over the next several days. Watch for support at 14150. 14315/50 is resistance.

British Pound / US Dollar

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_gbpusd.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The decline from the April high and subsequent advance are both 3 wave affairs. This suggests that either a flat or triangle is underway. Both point lower over the next few weeks towards 16000. In the event of a flat, price would drop under the July low of 15778 before finding a low. Shorter term support comes in at 16040.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_audusd.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieMy latest comments were that “I’m expecting a top in the 10730/85 area in early September. Trade until then may be choppy.” The AUDUSD has crawled higher the last few days but there is no sign that a top is in place. In fact, it appears that the last few subdivisions (waves 4 and 5) of the rally from the 8/19 low may need to unfold. The implications are for a drop into the channel line near 10600 before one final high is made.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_nzdusd.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe NZDUSD is in the same situation as the AUDUSD. Recent weakness may be a small 4th wave decline that gives way to one more high. The 100% extension of the rally from 7964 remains a potential topping point at 8616 as does the channel line (upper 8600s). 8430 is short term support.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_usdjpy.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The USDJPY rally from its record low (just below 7600) is left as a 3 wave rally which is corrective and leaves price vulnerable to new lows. Reinforcing the bearish structure of the 3 wave rally is the sharp decline from yesterday’s high (impulsive). If the USDJPY breaks down, the next level of interest on the downside would be the 161.8% extension of the decline from 7769, at 7507.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_usdcad.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe drop below 9765 negates the triangle as it was previously discussed but it is possible that this latest decline composes wave c of an a-b-c corrective decline (with wave b as the triangle) from 10008. Waves a and c would be equal at 9680 and 9645 is former resistance and may now provide support. Reinforcing the latter level is the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 9406 at 9636. It is worth noting that a monthly bullish engulfing pattern formed in August.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_usdchf.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie“Focus in recent days has been on the terminal thrust from the triangle, suggesting that a reversal is around the corner. Furthermore, the USDCHF had nearly reached the triangle breakout objective of 8243. This level is found by extending width of wave a of the triangle (7996-7769) from the breakout level (8016). Now that the USDCHF has indeed reversed, continue to look lower over the next few weeks towards the base of the triangle near 7770.” Near term resistance is 7925/60 and 7990.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_eurjpy.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – “Given the 3 wave structure from the low, I am leaning towards the bear side. Short term resistance comes in at 11090.” The EURJPY is well on its way to retracing the entire 3 wave rally from 10804. I favor selling rallies into resistance at 10990 with stops above 11100. A drop below 10804 would shift focus to the March low at 10645 and the 2010 low at 10541.

Euro / British Pound

Weekly

FXTechWeekly090211_body_eurgbp.png, USDOLLAR Bounces but Remains Within Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – Despite recent weakness, I maintain that a triangle is unfolding. “The EURGBP has traded sideways since the May high and a triangle may be forming. 3 waves can be counted thus far (down from the May high, up from the May low, and down from the July high). The current rally would compose wave D of the triangle and resistance is expected near the 6/10 high of 8975. If a triangle is unfolding, then expect consolidation for at least a month more before a break above 9082 (terminal thrust).”

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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