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Trading the Euro and New Zealand Dollar

Trading the Euro and New Zealand Dollar

2011-07-29 23:44:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Euro / US Dollar

300 Minute Bars

JamieWeekly072911_body_eurusd.png, Trading the Euro and New Zealand Dollar

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

After the false trendline break through the line that extends off of the May and July highs, the EURUSD broke down through its steep short term support line. Both lines now converge at the current juncture and serve as an impediment to further gains. Eventual support is the 14000-14100 area.

Euro / US Dollar

60 MinutesBars

JamieWeekly072911_body_eurusd_1.png, Trading the Euro and New Zealand Dollar

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

From an Elliott wave perspective, the EURUSD pattern is about as clean as it gets. The rally from the July low is impulsive (5 waves) and a 3 wave correction is underway now. A C wave decline is expected to unfold into 14100/30 – a level defined by the 61.8% retracement and 100% extension of the decline from 14535. A drop into this area may offer a buying opportunity for a run into the 15000s.

New Zealand / US Dollar

300 MinuteBars

JamieWeekly072911_body_nzdusd.png, Trading the Euro and New Zealand Dollar

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The NZDUSD rally from 8109 is viewed as a 3rd wave within a 5 wave advance from 7972 (which composes a 3rd wave itself). While it is impossible to know right now if a top is in place, expectations are for a 4th wave correction (possible in a triangle or flat) that ends near or below 8620. A drop to there would present a buying opportunity for wave 5.

Euro / Swiss Franc

MonthlyCandles

JamieWeekly072911_body_eurchf.png, Trading the Euro and New Zealand Dollar

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

July’s range was the largest (%) since October 2008 – which of course marked the a temporary low (the entire October 2008 decline was retraced within 2 months). It is possible that the extreme range this month will mark a temporary low (exhaustion).

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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