We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are the truths and myths of #forex trading? Find out from @DailyFX analysts here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr #FOMOintrading https://t.co/bDXG2dV3wG
  • The US Dollar technical outlook against the Euro, British Pound, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are discussed. Large wicks left signs of indecision, will reversals follow? $EURUSD $GBPUSD $AUDUSD $NZDUSD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/12/15/US-Dollar-Technical-Outlook-EURUSD-GBPUSD-AUDUSD-NZDUSD.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/dpuIppxo3F
  • What are some trading mistakes @nickcawley1 made during his career and what did he learn from them? Find out: https://t.co/y3cckNW22W https://t.co/vUQyVl6b0e
  • Growth linked currencies have gained as investors hope for progress on the trade front as well as stimulus from the Fed. The global economy however remains depressed and seems likely to remain so. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/jt1HH9AHLM https://t.co/Yz65AMJYlm
  • RT @YuanTalks: #China temporarily suspend additional tariffs of either 10% or 5% on some #US goods scheduled to take effect on Dec 15, said…
  • The gold-silver ratio is simple. It is the number of silver ounces you would need to trade to receive one ounce of #gold at current market prices. Find out how you can use this in your trading strategy here:https://t.co/kh5DZvv5ib $XAUUSD https://t.co/eJGODpfTNc
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 https://t.co/DoVBd1l1oO
  • #Silver is a precious metal commodity that investors use as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset. Find out what are some strategies and tips to trade silver here: https://t.co/k4tVcFuwxW #CommoditieswithDailyFX https://t.co/zXCSmH2HLX
  • Markets are trying to maintain a bullish tilt as a new week rolls around, a look ahead at the charts of the #Dow, #DAX, and #FTSE. Get your technical analysis on major world indices from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/bYjRDvQsdM https://t.co/mbg0rUbv3K
  • Trade conflict is clearly awful for the broad world economy, but some countries are already benefiting from it. More stand to do so. Spotting them early could be profitable. Get your update on the #tradewar from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/og0VAPAqwm https://t.co/xB8hYUj4OA
FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

2011-07-01 20:16:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Joel Kruger,
Share:

Trend Table

Trend Strength (M,W,D)

DisparityM

DisparityW

DisparityD

USDX

(1)

0

0

EURUSD

1

0

0

GBPUSD

0

(1)

0

AUDUSD

1

0

1

NZDUSD

2

2

1

USDJPY

(1)

0

0

USDCAD

(1)

0

(2)

USDCHF

(3)

(1)

0

EURJPY

0

0

1

GBPJPY

0

0

0

AUDJPY

1

0

2

NZDJPY

1

1

1

CADJPY

0

0

2

EURGBP

1

2

2

EURCHF

(2)

0

1

EURCAD

0

0

0

EURAUD

0

0

0

EURNZD

0

(1)

0

GBPCHF

(3)

(2)

0

GBPCAD

(2)

(1)

(2)

GBPAUD

(2)

(2)

(2)

GBPNZD

(2)

(3)

(2)

AUDCHF

(2)

0

1

AUDCAD

1

0

0

AUDNZD

0

(1)

0

NZDCHF

(1)

0

2

NZDCAD

1

1

0

S&P

1

0

1

GOLD

2

0

(1)

SILVER

0

0

(1)

CRUDE

0

0

0

30YR

0

0

(1)

COPPER

0

0

2

CHARTS

-price bar chart

-base currency 10 yr interest rate in green

-counter currency 10 yr interest rate in red

-interest rate differential in black

-indicator that measures change in interest rate differential and change in price over 20 days is in blue (blue bar indicates strong bull move and warns of a top when no longer blue – red bar indicates strong bear move and warns of a bottom when no longer red)-referred to as JSINT

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) & 2yr +10yr US yields

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_usd.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The near term analysis for the USDOLLAR is the exact opposite of the EURUSD. A triangle appears to be unfolding. The implications are bearish several weeks out but a tighter range is likely to take hold near term. Near term resistance is 74.87 and 75.05 and 75.50 (closer to the triangle line). Additional weakness should find support at 74.00.

JoelAlthough the overall downtrend has been quite intense, the market could be showing signs of basing following the latest impressive rebound. Look for a break back above the 24May high on to officially confirm bullish reversal prospects and accelerate gains. However, inability to establish above the 24May high will keep the pressure on the downside and open a retest of the recent trend lows. A more constructive weekly chart does help to reaffirm recovery outlook, and we look for a higher low over 9400 ahead of the next major upside extension beyond 9765.

Euro / US Dollar

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_eurusd.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURUSD has met triangle resistance and expectations are for price to work a bit lower to complete the triangle in wave E before a breakout later this summer. Upside cannot be ruled out over the next day or so but 14600/20 should cap any strength if the triangle is still forming. Expect a tighter range over the next few weeks. JSINT is at an extremely low level, which increases the probability of a setback near term.

JoelThe market remains well bid on dips towards 1.4000 for now with the latest price action resulting in some choppy consolidation. However, look for any additional rallies from here to be well capped below 1.4550 on a daily close basis ahead of the next downside extension back towards and eventually below 1.4000. A coiling of the 10/20/50/100-Day SMAs also suggests that a near-term break of the range is due, and given the more medium-term structure, we anticipate the break will be to the downside. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 1.4550 gives reason for concern.

British Pound / US Dollar

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_gbpusd.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The GBPUSD has broken below its trendline from the 2010 low and confirmed a head and shoulders top. Using the traditional head and shoulders measuring technique yields an objective near 15250 (distance between head and neckline subtracted from point of neckline break), which is near the late 2010 low of 15350. Recent consolidation may lead to a break higher that tests 16200 before Cable rolls over.

JoelAlthough the short-term structure remains bearish, setbacks seem to be well supported in the 1.5900’s for now. However, we classify the latest price action as some bearish consolidation ahead of the next major downside extension with the market now looking to establish back below the 200-Day SMA and extend declines below next key support at 1.5750 further down. In the interim, look for any rallies to be well capped ahead below 1.6250 on a daily close basis. Rallies towards 1.6200 should therefore be sold into.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_audusd.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie“The AUDUSD may be headed for fresh highs above 11000 in the coming month(s) (in a 5th wave).” Price continues to advance at a relentless pace and 10775 is on the verge of giving way. A pop through there should result in a pullback, which ideally proves corrective. Support would then be 10600/50. A long AUDUSD position at slightly lower levels is one of the better opportunities in my opinion.

JoelContinues to show signs of topping after posting fresh post float record highs just over 1.1000 several weeks back. The latest corrective rally therefore is expected to be well capped ahead of 1.0800 where the next lower top is sought out ahead of a fresh downside extension below 1.0390 and into the 1.0200’s. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 1.0800 negates and gives reason for concern. Intraday rallies towards 1.0750 should therefore be sold.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_nzdusd.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieFocus remains on the resistance line that extends off of the May and June highs. This line is above 8400. It is possible that this leg will complete a diagonal from the March low. 8235 and 8180 serve as near term support. IF the rally from the March low is a diagonal, then the top must occur before 8517 in order to ensure that wave 3 is not the shortest wave.

JoelAny sign of an intermediate top in this market is looking less pronounced with the price rallying back to fresh post float record highs beyond 0.8300. However, we still consider the overall price action to be quite stretched and would therefore be looking for yet another topside failure around 0.8300 ahead of an eventual bearish decline and shift in the overall construct of the market. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 0.8300 would compromise bias and give reason for concern.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_usdjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – There are signs that a major USDJPY shift is in the works. Price bounced from its 61.8% retracement of the rally from the March low twice in the last 2 months and has also broken above the trendline that extends off of the April and May highs. A 3rd wave advance may be underway – if so, then this rally should accelerate in the coming weeks. The above chart plots the weekly spot price with the 2 yr interest rate differential. The differential has turned higher from a level that has previously held, which increases confidence in the bullish bias.

JoelAfter undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support in the 80.00 area and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported around 80.00 with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks and the latest break and close back above 81.00 helps to confirm. Look for a test of next key short-term resistance by 82.20 over the coming sessions.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_usdcad.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThere is a bullish USDCAD count in which the rally from the low is a leading diagonal and the sharp decline is wave 2. 9600, which intersects with a line parallel to the potential neckline, has been reached and should provoke a reaction. 9575 is also former resistance and now potential support. Near term resistance is former support at 9670 and 9700. I have my doubts about the larger bullish count but it is worth considering given the potential for additional weakness in crude.

JoelThe market has finally managed to mount a nice recovery since basing out by fresh multi-month lows in the 0.9400’s and could be in the process of attempting to establish a more meaningful base. The market recovery has however failed to trade back above the 200-Day SMA since September 2010 and a sustained break back above the longer-term SMA which currently comes in by the 0.9900 figure would be required to further confirm bullish outlook and accelerate gains. Nevertheless, look for any setbacks to now be well supported above 0.9600 on a daily close basis, while only back below 0.9600 would give reason for concern.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_usdchf.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – Recent evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of a major USDCHF reversal. Evidence includes the recent COT data diverging from the record CHF high, major divergence with RSI close to 50 on the daily (more powerful than if at a lower level), increasing interest rate differential in favor the USD, and now impulsive rally from the low. Near term weakness should prove corrective. Support is 8425 and 8390.

JoelDespite the intense downtrend resulting in recently established fresh record lows below 0.8300, short/medium/longer-term technical studies are looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. The latest break back above the 20-Day SMA is encouraging while a push beyond 0.8550 will ultimately be required to officially relieve immediate downside pressures and accelerate gains. In the interim, look for intraday setbacks to be well supported ahead of 0.8300.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_eurjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe latest sharp pullbacks into the 113.00’s have been intense, although the market has now found some formidable support by the previous resistance area now turned support. Look for a fresh medium-term higher low to carve out above 113.00 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually through the recent highs by 123.35. Ultimately, only a sustained break below 113.00 concerns.

Joel – The near term analysis for the USDOLLAR is the exact opposite of the EURUSD. A triangle appears to be unfolding. The implications are bearish several weeks out but a tighter range is likely to take hold near term. Near term resistance is 74.87 and 75.05 and 75.50 (closer to the triangle line). Additional weakness should find support at 74.00.

Euro / British Pound

Daily

FXTechWeekly070111_body_eurgbp.png, FX Technical Weekly: Swiss Franc Reversal Has Legs

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURGBP has traded through 9042, which should lead to a test of 9150/60 (former high and 100% extension of the rally from 8066). Keep an eye on channel resistance as well, which is above 9200. Former resistance at 8950/75 is now support. The next top (near 9200?) will compose a large B wave from the 2010 low and lead to a collapse.

JoelAlthough daily studies are starting to look quite stretched with the cross breaking to fresh yearly highs beyond 0.9050, fresh upside from here is not to be ruled out with the market setting its sights on next key resistance in the form of the 2010 highs by 0.9130. However, should we see a test of the 0.9130 area over the coming sessions, we would be looking for opportunities to fade the strength with the market then likely due for a healthy and necessary corrective pullback which could even still develop into a more significant bearish reversal given the less bullish medium-term structure.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, emailinstructor@dailyfx.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.