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Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

2011-06-24 19:25:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Trend Table

Trend Strength (M,W,D)

DisparityM

DisparityW

DisparityD

USDX

(1)

0

1

EURUSD

1

0

(1)

GBPUSD

1

(1)

(2)

AUDUSD

1

0

(2)

NZDUSD

2

0

0

USDJPY

0

0

0

USDCAD

(1)

1

2

USDCHF

(2)

(2)

0

EURJPY

0

0

(1)

GBPJPY

0

(1)

(2)

AUDJPY

1

0

(1)

NZDJPY

1

0

0

CADJPY

0

(1)

(1)

EURGBP

0

0

0

EURCHF

(2)

(2)

(1)

EURCAD

0

0

0

EURAUD

(1)

0

0

EURNZD

0

(1)

0

GBPCHF

(3)

(3)

(2)

GBPCAD

0

0

0

GBPAUD

(2)

0

(1)

GBPNZD

(2)

(3)

(1)

AUDCHF

(1)

(2)

(1)

AUDCAD

1

0

0

AUDNZD

0

(1)

0

NZDCHF

(1)

(2)

(1)

NZDCAD

2

1

0

S&P

1

(1)

(1)

GOLD

3

0

(1)

SILVER

1

0

(1)

CRUDE

0

(1)

(2)

30YR

0

2

1

COPPER

0

0

0

CHARTS

-price bar chart

-base currency 10 yr interest rate in green

-counter currency 10 yr interest rate in red

-interest rate differential in black

-indicator that measures change in interest rate differential and change in price over 20 days is in blue (blue bar indicates strong bull move and warns of a top when no longer blue – red bar indicates strong bear move and warns of a bottom when no longer red)-referred to as JSINT

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) & 2yr +10yr US yields

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_usd.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The US dollar appears poised for a break to the upside. After last week’s doji, price has closed near its high for this week. Price is right at a trendline that extends off of the June 2010 and January 2011 highs if connecting the line off of the highs. If using the closes to draw the line (see above), then the line was broken several weeks ago. I am cautiously bullish from here but would be wildly bullish if price can register a daily close above the May high.

Euro / US Dollar

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_eurusd.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURUSD has finally registered a daily close below the trendline that connects the 2011 lows. Understand that it is possible for a larger range to unfold as long as price is above the May below of 13969. In fact, the pattern would probably take the form of a triangle. If price does breakdown, then focus is on the 100% extension of the decline from 14940, which is at 13725 and intersects the trendline that extends off of the June 2010 and January 2011 lows on July 11th.

British Pound / US Dollar

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_gbpusd.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The GBPUSD has definitively broken below its trendline from the 2010 low and confirmed a head and shoulders top. Using the traditional head and shoulders measuring technique yields an objective near 15250 (distance between head and neckline subtracted from point of neckline break), which is near the late 2010 low of 15350. Short term resistance is 16080, 16150 and short term channel resistance. I like establishing shorts at those levels against 16262

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_audusd.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe AUDUSD has traded in a choppy style since the top just above 11000 in May. The choppy action suggests that a corrective pattern of some sort is underway. Candidates would include a triangle or flat. Price should remain below 10650 if price is to test 10200 (100% extension) by the end of this month, which intersects with a long term trendline (at the end of the month). A move above 10650 would suggest formation of a larger B wave that ends near 10800.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_nzdusd.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe rally to 8300 has the look of a blow off (the 6/9 range was 1.5 x its 20 day ATR). Throw in divergence with momentum at the recent top and you’ve got the ingredients for a more important reversal. Kiwi has now also broken below the steep trendline that extends off of the March and May lows. The rally to 8194 likely completes 3 waves up from the low. The implications are for a sharp decline from the current level that ends below 7971.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_usdjpy.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The USDJPY is attempting to turn higher yet again as price is back above its 20 day average (intraday). Former trendline resistance is also acting as support at the current level. A break above 8105 would signal the first break above a multi day pivot high since the decline that began in April. A drop below 7956 would shift focus to 7856 (61.8% extension of 8552-7956 decline) and 7833 (78.6% retracement). It is certainly worth noting that the USDPY has bounced from its 61.8% retracement twice in the last 2 months.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_usdcad.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe USDCAD has quietly advanced since its late April low. The series of higher highs and higher lows is intact as long as price is above 9670. I’ve also mentioned in recent days that the USDCAD remains within a longer term bearish channel from the September 2010 high. That channel remains intact for now but a break above 9900 would signal an important longer term bullish break.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_usdchf.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The USDCHF continues to probe the all time low that was made in early June at 8325. The rally from there is left as a 3 wave affair so a drop to a fresh record low cannot be ruled out. There are other possibilities, such as formation of a multi month flat or triangle, which would offer range trading opportunities.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_eurjpy.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURJPY is sitting just above its May low of 11340. This is the second attempt at taking out 11340 so respect the potential for a break. Coming under 11340 would shift focus to the 61.8% extension of the decline from the April high, at 11176. Watch parallel channel support as well. The daily trend indicator is pointing down.

Euro / British Pound

Daily

TechWeekly_062411_body_eurgbp.png, Euro 2011 Following Euro 2008 Script - Low on Monday?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURGBP is setting up for a sharp plunge – as long as price remains below 8975. The decline from 8975 can be classified as an impulse (5 waves) and the rally from 8720 is a textbook 3 wave correction. The immediate implications are for weakness to extend below 8720 (as long as 8975 is intact).

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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