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FX Technical Weekly

FX Technical Weekly

2011-06-17 23:59:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:

Trend Table

Trend Strength (M,W,D)

Trend M

Trend W

Trend D

USDX

(1)

0

0

EURUSD

1

0

0

GBPUSD

1

0

(1)

AUDUSD

1

0

0

NZDUSD

2

1

0

USDJPY

0

(1)

(1)

USDCAD

(1)

0

0

USDCHF

(2)

(2)

0

EURJPY

0

0

(1)

GBPJPY

0

(1)

(2)

AUDJPY

1

0

(1)

NZDJPY

1

0

0

CADJPY

0

(1)

(1)

EURGBP

0

0

0

EURCHF

(2)

(1)

0

EURCAD

0

0

0

EURAUD

(1)

0

0

EURNZD

0

(1)

0

GBPCHF

(3)

(3)

(1)

GBPCAD

0

0

0

GBPAUD

(2)

0

(1)

GBPNZD

(2)

(2)

(1)

AUDCHF

(1)

(1)

0

AUDCAD

1

1

0

AUDNZD

0

(1)

0

NZDCHF

(1)

(1)

0

NZDCAD

2

1

0

S&P

1

(1)

(2)

GOLD

3

1

0

SILVER

1

0

0

CRUDE

0

(1)

(2)

30YR

0

2

1

COPPER

0

0

0

CHARTS

-price bar chart

-base currency 10 yr interest rate in green

-counter currency 10 yr interest rate in red

-interest rate differential in black

-indicator that measures change in interest rate differential and change in price over 20 days is in blue (blue bar indicates strong bull move and warns of a top when no longer blue – red bar indicates strong bear move and warns of a bottom when no longer red)-referred to as JSINT

US Dollar (2yr and 10yr yields)

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_usd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The trend in the USD at this point is best described as sideways to down. Price remains below the trendline that extends off of the June 2010 and January 2011 highs, which keeps the buck under pressure but the rally from the May low is sharp and the largest since the top in December 2010 thus one must consider the possibility that a major low is forming. Near term support is 7425/50 – failure to stay above there would be worrisome but the June low at 7351 is the line in the sand for bulls.

Euro / US Dollar

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_eurusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – It is unclear if the EURUSD has topped. Much like the USD, the EURUSD trend is best described as sideways to up. Price remains above the trendline that extends off of the January and May lows so respect potential for strength into 14400/14500 early next week. If a larger top is in place, then that level should hold. The line in the sand for bears is the June high at 14696.

British Pound / US Dollar

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_gbpusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – Cable has broken below the trendline that has held price since the 2010 low. The drop warrants a ‘short on rallies’ approach. Initial resistance is former support at 16208 and every 50 pips up to 16300. Looking out a bit, a break below 16057 would shift focus to a 100% extension at 15858 but the longer term triangle count (from 2009 low) suggests an eventual drop below 15000.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_audusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe slow grinding decline in the AUDUSD from above 11000 is viewed as wave A (leading diagonal or wedge to classical technicians). The secondary top is probably in place at 10774. Like the other USD pairs, I favor shorting (buying the USD) on rallies (resistance has now been reached). Price should remain below 10715 if the larger trend is indeed down. An objective is 10200 (100% extension), which intersects with a long term trendline at the end of the month. Trading above 10715 would suggest a move above 10800.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_nzdusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe rally to 8300 has the look of a blow off (the 6/9 range was 1.5 x its 20 day ATR). Throw in divergence with momentum at the recent top and you’ve got the ingredients for a more important reversal. Kiwi has also dropped below the steep support line that extends off of the March and May lows (re-testing that line now as resistance). Resistance extends to the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the top at 8175.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_usdjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The latest USDJPY attempt at turning higher appears to have failed at its 20 day average (false break above trendline). A drop below 7956 would shift focus to 7856 (61.8% extension of 8552-7956 decline) and 7833 (78.6% retracement). Trading above 8160 would strongly suggest that the larger advance is underway (to above 8223 at minimum).

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_usdcad.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

JamieThe USDCAD is approaching parallel channel resistance that dates to last summer. One channel intersects with 9975, which is former support and resistance, next week. This level is clearly important. As long as price is above 9670, I am cautiously bullish.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_usdchf.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The series of rallies and declines from the June low is viewed as a series of 1st and 2nd waves. The implications are for an exceptionally strong advance to unfold in a 3rd wave. Former resistance is now support at 8470. Support extends to 8425 (61.8%) The next area of interest on the upside is a trendline near 8700.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_eurjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURJPY held its 11340 May low, suggesting that a larger range (triangle or flat) may be playing out in wave x. The implications are for continued strength towards 11600 (former support), 11700 (former high), and perhaps even the recent range high at 11789. The last 2 daily candles are bullish as well (long lower shadows – today was a doji).

Euro / British Pound

Daily

FXTW_061711_body_eurgbp.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The EURGBP, much like the EURUSD, is at a crossroads. There is conflicting long term evidence such as the 3 wave rally from the 2010 low (bearish) and break above the trendline drawn off of the 2010 and 2009 highs (bullish). The decline from 8975 has unfolded in 5 waves, which ultimately favors the downside (and suggests that the rally from 8610 completed a flat). Near term, the sharp rally from 8720 may compose a small 2nd wave advance as the rally is in 3 waves and has retraced 50% of the decline from 8975.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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