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FX Technical Weekly

FX Technical Weekly

2011-04-22 23:59:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Trend Table

RSIM,W,D – RSI Bias for month, week, and day (BC=buying climax, SC=selling climax)

BBI – Bollinger Band Reversal Setup (M-12 periods, W-13 periods, D-20 periods)

Time – Duration of current daily trend

RSIM

BBI

RSIW

BBI

RSID

BBI

Time(Days)

EURUSD

+

+

+

46

GBPUSD

+

+

+

14

AUDUSD

+

+

+

24

NZDUSD

+

+

+

21

USDJPY

-

-

-

(5)

USDCAD

-

-

-

(21)

USDCHF

-

-

-

(12)

EURJPY

BC

+

+

3

EURGBP

+

+

+

3

EURCHF

-

-

-

(8)

EURCAD

-

+

+

2

EURAUD

-

-

-

(7)

EURNZD

BC

-

-

(18)

GBPJPY

-

+

+

2

GBPCHF

-

-

-

(10)

GBPCAD

-

-

-

(21)

GBPAUD

-

-

-

(22)

GBPNZD

-

-

-

(21)

AUDJPY

+

+

+

21

AUDCHF

+

-

+

3

AUDCAD

+

+

+

23

AUDNZD

+

-

-

(15)

NZDJPY

-

+

+

21

NZDCHF

-

-

+

20

NZDCAD

-

+

+

21

S&P

+

+

+

1

GOLD

+

+

+

22

SILVER

+

+

+

51

CRUDE

BC

+

+

22

30YR

+

+

+

1

COPPER

+

+

-

(3)

CHARTS

-price bar chart

-base currency 10 yr interest rate in green

-counter currency 10 yr interest rate in red

-interest rate differential in black

-indicator that measures change in interest rate differential and change in price over 20 days is in blue (high levels indicate buying opportunities, low levels selling opportunities)-referred to as JSINT

- 14 day RSI

Euro / US Dollar

Daily

042111FXTW_body_eurusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The EURUSD is at a most interesting juncture. As focused on in last month’s forecast, the trendline that connects the 2008 and 2009 highs was broken in early April. This week’s price action took out the prior week’s low and the 2010 high (14579)and the rally has stalled at a short term resistance line. Given the recent sharp moves, some consolidation seems likely. Fibonacci support is 14344, 14402, and 14460. The 50% and 61.8% levels intersect with former short term pivots. I’d be remiss if I failed to point out that JSINT is at its lowest level since the October 2010 top. Extremely low readings are bearish (indicator moves inversely to price).

British Pound / US Dollar

Daily

042111FXTW_body_gbpusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The GBPUSD broke through its 2010 high (16457) this week and focus in now on the trendline upwards of 16900. The strong advance today is confirmed by a higher RSI on the daily but allow for some consolidation / correction lower before an attempt on the next objective. Former resistance at 16430 is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The GBPUSD JSINT indicator has reached extreme territory.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

042111FXTW_body_audusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

JamieThe beast that is the AUDUSD is nearing 10800 and an objective is 10975. 10975 is derived from the extension of the vertical measurement of the sideways range that began in November. There is also potential resistance at channel resistance near 10850. In the event of consolidation, support comes in at 10645 and 10580. JSNINT is nearing reversal territory.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

042111FXTW_body_nzdusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The NZDUSD is above the 2010 high and at its highest since April 2008. The next level of interest on the upside is the 2008 high at 8215. The move is extended by multiple measures and divergence with daily RSI reinforces the concept. 7900/30 is a near term support area.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily

042111FXTW_body_usdjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The impulsive character of the USDJPY decline suggests that weakness is probably wave a of an a-b-c correction (probably a sharp zigzag). Price has met initial support from former resistance so a bounce back towards 8440 is favored at this time. The character of the advance will shed future expectations.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily

042111FXTW_body_usdcad.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

JamieAfter trading into the opening opening range of the month and the 20 day average, the USDCAD reversed and focus is on the downward sloping channel at 9409 this week. A break below there would shift focus to the all time low at 9055 (in 2007). Resistance comes in from Fibonacci at 9555, 9587, and 9619.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Daily

042111FXTW_body_usdchf.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – Expect the USDCHF to work a bit lower to test the lower diagonal line (and perhaps make a throwover) prior to forming a significant low and reversing in impressive fashion (as typically happens following ending diagonals). An impulsive advance from the low would suggest that the bottom is in place. The diagonal line is just below 8700 next week.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily

042111FXTW_body_eurjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The Yen crosses present the clearest short term patterns right now. Weakness from the April highs are clearly corrective and strength from this week’s lows are impulsive (5 waves). With respect to the EURJPY, 11800/50 is support in the event of a dip but I do expect a test (at least) of the high above 12300.

Euro / British Pound

Daily

042111FXTW_body_eurgbp.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The break above long term trendline resistance points to additional gains and an eventual move through 8940. Still, 8940 is a significant level and a break higher on the first try seems unlikely. Divergence with RSI at the recent high suggests that the EURGBP is vulnerable as does a completed 5 waves from 8355. A drop below the channel would signal that a larger correction is probably underway towards 8670. Keep in mind that indicators remain bullish however – a move to a new high would see resistance from a Fibonacci extension at 8982.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Past presentations on technical analysis are available to view. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, emailinstructor@dailyfx.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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