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FX Technical Weekly

FX Technical Weekly

2011-03-11 23:59:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:

Weekly Trend Duration and Support/Resistance

TrendW

CURR

1 STD

2 STD

3 STD

ATR(13w)

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

EURUSD

Up

7

6

12

18

2.46%

1.3569

1.3679

1.3790

1.4017

1.4131

1.4245

GBPUSD

Up

5

6

12

19

1.86%

1.5789

1.5886

1.5984

1.6183

1.6282

1.6382

AUDUSD

Up

5

7

13

20

2.26%

0.9927

1.0000

1.0075

1.0227

1.0304

1.0380

NZDUSD

Down

3

9

17

26

2.89%

0.7225

0.7293

0.7363

0.7506

0.7577

0.7649

USDJPY

Down

2

4

8

13

1.94%

81.19

81.71

82.24

83.31

83.84

84.38

USDCAD

Down

17

5

9

14

1.50%

0.9562

0.9609

0.9657

0.9754

0.9802

0.9851

USDCHF

Down

3

7

14

20

2.62%

0.9055

0.9132

0.9212

0.9373

0.9454

0.9535

EURJPY

Up

6

4

9

13

2.29%

111.31

112.15

113.00

114.73

115.60

116.47

EURGBP

Up

3

5

9

14

2.13%

0.8464

0.8523

0.8583

0.8705

0.8767

0.8828

TrendW is weekly trend and CURR denotes how long the current trend has been underway in weeks. 1,2,3 STD are 1st,2nd, and 3rd standard deviations of the duration of trends measured over the last 150 weeks (3 years).

ATR(13w) is 13 week average true range expressed as a percentage

CHARTS

-price bar chart

-base currency 10 yr interest rate in green

-counter currency 10 yr interest rate in red

-interest rate differential in black

-indicator that measures change in interest rate differential and change in price over 60 days is in blue (high levels indicate buying opportunities, low levels selling opportunities)-referred to as JSINT

-price close chart (bold) and 14 day RSI

Euro / US Dollar

Daily

031111FXTW_body_eurusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The EURUSD continues to crawl higher and price has met a trendline that extends off of the December 2009 and November 2010 highs. At this point, bulls have 14282 in their sights but JSINT is at levels that line up with previous tops (although not as low as the reading on GBPUSD) and bearish sentiment is rampant. Points of reference must determine direction and ONLY a drop below 13743 (March low thus far) would suggest that a top is in place.

British Pound / US Dollar

Daily

031111FXTW_body_gbpusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – As focused on in the Daily Technicals in recent weeks and months, a larger triangle appears to be unfolding in the GBPUSD from the late 2008 low. Resistance extends to 16457 (2010 high and 78.6% retracement). JSINT has turned up from its lowest level since 2009, which is bearish. Divergence with RSI across at the last 3 daily peaks is bearish as is this week’s outside candle.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

031111FXTW_body_audusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

JamieWhat a Friday – the AUDUSD daily range was the largest since early December. Bigger picture, the pair remains stationary and I await a directional signal from the market. Only a break below 9803 would confirm a reversal to the downside. A move above 10256 would shift focus higher following a bullish triangle break towards 10500 or even 11000 (closer to 11000 is using traditional triangle measurement methods). The 1st day of the year remains the high for the year, which is significant. Traders should use 10201-10074 as a range to play a breakout next week (opening range for the month). JSINT is flashing sell signals as the trends in interest rate differential and exchange rate have diverged significantly.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Daily

031111FXTW_body_nzdusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The NZDUSD traded slightly lower before reversing to close in the center of last week’s range and above its 200 day SMA. Clearly a critical juncture, the NZDUSD may enjoy a bounce. Resistance is from 7475 to 7554 and I favor selling strength with a stop above 7655. Downside objectives are the 100% extension at 7191, former support and psychologically significant 7000 and finally 6800 (161.8% extension, round figure, and former support). JSINT is in the middle of its range.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily

031111FXTW_body_usdjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – Signals remain conflicting with a bullish RSI reversal and positive 20/50 day average cross yet the contracting USDJPY range since November appears more and more like a bearish triangle. Triangles are terminal patterns so a drop to a new low (and then a record low) could complete a multi decade decline in the USDJPY (long term Elliott wave pattern). The extent of the potential decline is in question – round figures such as 7500 would surely garner interest.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily

031111FXTW_body_usdcad.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – 9500 is a level of interest in the USDCAD. While of round figure importance, the level is also a support line next week (extended off of the October 2009 and April 2010 lows). JSINT is nearing levels that have marked buying opportunities in recent years, as evidenced by the major divergence between the interest rate differential and exchange rate since November.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Daily

031111FXTW_body_usdchf.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – Watch for support from the line that extends off of the October and December lows. This level isn’t much below 9200 next week with continued weakness targeting 9000. JSINT is at levels consistent with former lows thus my interest in a drastic reversal is piqued.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily

031111FXTW_body_eurjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The EURJPY has seen quite a reversal, having endured a roundtrip from the 3/3 low. Weakness below 11195 is needed in order to suggest that an important top is in place. That level is reinforced by the 50 day average at 11210 and the 200 day average at 11155. Do not dismiss the potential for an important top to form as the recent high is not confirmed with a higher RSI.

Euro / British Pound

Daily

031111FXTW_body_eurgbp.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – A head and shoulders continuation pattern appears to be unfolding from the June 2010 low. Look higher from here but 8742 is a measured objective and intersects with resistance from several upward sloping channel lines and a long term resistance line is just above 8700 on Monday. 8532 is the pivot. JSINT is in a bullish position.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Past presentations on technical analysis are available to view. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, emailinstructor@dailyfx.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

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