We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides Download
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $AUDUSD trades to a fresh yearly low (0.6542) amid the rapid rise in the number of COVID-19 cases, and the exchange rate may continue to exhibit a bearish behavior. Get your AUD/USD market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/XtsGTkXhYs https://t.co/j4hqput9E0
  • Event risks for tomorrow includes $EUR German Unemployment Change, $EUR German CPI (YoY) (FEB P), $CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (DEC), USD Advance Goods Trade Balance (JAN), and USD PCE Core (YoY) (JAN) https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/FZ5drmWDeb
  • Reminds of this scene in Austin Powers https://t.co/tiDJVLM99F
  • Well, that was a terrible session for equity bulls. It is not good to be fully committed to a market view especially when traditional value methods call such stark attention to circumstances. As the saying goes "strong convictions, weekly held"
  • Ouch https://t.co/Ci8Txfpf98
  • US Equity Close: $DJI -1,196 (-4.44%) $SPX -138.5 (-4.44%) $NDX -414.3 (-4.61%) $RUT -56.5 (-3.64%) $VIX +10.1 (+36.47%)
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.07% Wall Street: -0.03% Germany 30: -2.00% France 40: -2.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/OoZaNhSRFB
  • Fed's Evans says it is too early to respond with monetary policy to the coronavirus impact, but what about responding to the financial market's response to the coronavirus?
  • And, here is the $DXY Dollar Index overlaid with rate forecasts derived from Fed Funds futures through end of the year (flipped to align to textbook expectations) https://t.co/AvOauBbs2u
  • I smell desperation. Here is the $SPX overlaid with the forecast for rate cuts through the end of 2020. Pricing in 72 bps of easing. Shouldn't ask what the Fed will do but rather what can they practically achieve with their efforts... https://t.co/BCrOAIO1zC
FX Technical Weekly

FX Technical Weekly

2011-02-04 23:59:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Joel Kruger,
Share:

Weekly Trend Duration and Support/Resistance

TrendW

CURR

1 STD

2 STD

3 STD

ATR(13w)

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

EURUSD

Up

4

6

12

18

2.89%

1.3200

1.3324

1.3451

1.3712

1.3843

1.3973

GBPUSD

Up

3

6

12

19

2.05%

1.5785

1.5892

1.6000

1.6219

1.6329

1.6439

AUDUSD

Up

1

7

13

20

2.68%

0.9871

0.9958

1.0046

1.0227

1.0317

1.0408

NZDUSD

Up

2

9

17

26

3.11%

0.7462

0.7538

0.7615

0.7774

0.7854

0.7933

USDJPY

Down

2

4

9

13

2.00%

80.56

81.09

81.63

82.72

83.27

83.81

USDCAD

Down

12

4

8

13

1.74%

0.9702

0.9758

0.9814

0.9928

0.9986

1.0043

USDCHF

Down

4

7

14

21

2.62%

0.9305

0.9385

0.9466

0.9632

0.9716

0.9799

EURJPY

Up

3

4

9

13

2.53%

108.84

109.74

110.66

112.53

113.47

114.41

EURGBP

Up

1

6

12

18

2.24%

0.8246

0.8307

0.8369

0.8494

0.8557

0.8620

-TrendW is weekly trend and CURR denotes how long the current trend has been underway in weeks. 1,2,3 STD are 1st,2nd, and 3rd standard deviations of the duration of trends measured over the last 150 weeks (3 years).

-ATR(13w) is 13 week average true range expressed as a percentage

-On the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals (classic definition) from a 13 week high/low and a range for the week that is at least as large as 13 week ATR

The price charts contain RSI signals (comparison of RSI and price extremes) over 3 different periods, 26,39,and 52 weeks

Euro / US Dollar

Weekly

020411FXTW_body_eurusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie - The 100% extension of the 12873-13456 rally proved too much for bulls as the EURUSD reversed sharply this week to close near its low. Last week’s candle is left as a spinning top and this week’s candle is a reverse hammer, which is a bearish combination. When viewed in the context of the daily wave pattern, the EURUSD is in an especially vulnerable position. Short term supports are former resistance at 13456 and 13244.

Joel - A major bearish reversal day on Thursday has taken the pressure off of the topside for now with the market fast approaching next key short-term support by 1.3570. Look for a close below this level to further accelerate declines and open the door for deeper setbacks towards 1.3500. However, we do also see the potential for a bounce back towards the 1.3750-1.3800 area with the potential for a formation of an inter-day head & shoulders top. As such, the preferred strategy is to look to sell into rallies towards 1.3800, with stops to be placed just over the yearly high at 1.3860. Back above 1.3860 negates short-term bearish outlook and exposes 1.4000 further up.

British Pound / US Dollar

Weekly

020411FXTW_body_gbpusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie - The GBPUSD continues to hold up much better than the EURUSD and a push above 16299 cannot be ruled out (although Thursday’s key reversal makes a new high less likely). In such an event, resistance would be 16457. The triangle pattern (from January 2009 low) should result in weakness towards 14780 (wave D) in the months ahead regardless if that decline begins now or from above 16299. The lower triangle line intersects with 14780 in April.

Joel - Bearish reversal formations don’t get much prettier than the one seen on Thursday with the market putting in a bearish outside day after stalling out just ahead of key psychological barriers and range resistance by 1.6300. The formation is almost too pretty, but a break and close below 1.6120 on Friday will confirm topping and open the door for a more significant pullback towards the 1.5800 area over the coming sessions. Back above 1.6280 would however be concerning and likely negate topping prospects.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly

020411FXTW_body_audusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The AUDUSD reversed ahead of its 2011 high (10224) on Friday so it is possible that a top is in place. With a completed Elliott wave pattern (5 waves) from the 2008 low (6000), the risk of a sharp reversal and decline does remain. However, bears need a break below 9803 in order to confirm a reversal. Until then, additional upside and fresh multi decade highs are a possibility.

Joel - This market remains very well bid despite what we believe to be an overextended Australian Dollar and the latest break back above 1.0160 is concerning for bearish outlook, with the move now potentially exposing a rally back towards and above the post float record highs from late 2010 at 1.0260. Inability to convincingly clear 1.0260 on Friday will however keep our bias loosely intact, but ultimately, a break and daily close back below 1.0080 will be required to relieve topside pressures.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly

020411FXTW_body_nzdusd.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The NZDUSD has diverged from the AUDUSD and closed near its low of the week to form a bearish gravestone doji (weekly). I maintain that the NZDUSD completed wave b of a flat in late 2010. 5 waves down are visible from 7975 so the probability is increased that wave c down is underway. A break below 7342 is needed to confirm that the b wave high is in place and that the NZDUSD is headed for an eventual break below 6560.

Joel - Technically, although this past Wednesday’s price action only resulted in an inside day formation, it was as nasty of a bearish inside day formation as once could expect with the market just missing a bearish outside day formation. Thursday’s break back below Wednesday’s low however now makes bearish reversal prospects more realistic and we look for a break and close back below 0.7680 to confirm outlook and accelerate declines. A closer look at the multi-day chart shows the market very well capped in the 0.7800 area, and as such, we retain a bearish outlook in anticipation of an eventual move back towards 0.7525 over the coming sessions.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly

020411FXTW_body_usdjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – One can view the USDJPY action since October as consolidation prior to a continuation of weakness or a basing pattern that will lead to a break higher. On the daily, the sideways pattern appears as a triangle. As for the ‘basing’ idea, even a break above 8450 could complete a correction (at 8519) after which the USDJPY would be vulnerable again. This week’s candle did form a hammer, thus increasing evidence for those in the bullish camp. This market is at a crossroads and I await a resolution. The relationship between Yen and bonds may offer a clue.

Joel - Despite the latest setbacks below 82.00 which have put the pressure back on the downside, the market remains well bid on dips towards 81.00. A break and close back below 81.30 will open the door for fresh downside towards the multi-year lows from late 2010 by 80.25, but at the same time, should the market manage a close back above 82.00, we could see yet another successful basing attempt with the potential for a more significant recovery back towards and eventually beyond 84.50. In the interim, best to stay on the sidelines and await a clearer signal.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Weekly

020411FXTW_body_usdcad.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The USDCAD reversed yet again this week and closed near its low. The 13 week average continues to hold and the downside must be respected. Focus is on the downward sloping trendline drawn off of the August and October lows as well as 9710 (February 2008 low). This week’s high at 10057 can be used as a stop and reverse level for those that must have a directional opinion (there are better opportunities in my opinion).

Joel - The market has been under some intense pressure and after managing to match the 2010 lows from April on the final day of the year, has now extended declines to fresh multi-month lows by 0.9835. But daily studies are starting to look a little stretched, and this in conjunction with longer-term cyclical studies which warn of a major base, leave us looking for opportunities to buy rather then selling into the downtrend. A bullish outside week a few weeks back helps to encourage our outlook and we look for added confirmation on a daily close back above 1.0060. The most recent setbacks have been well supported ahead of 0.9835 and by a shorter-term 78.6% fib retrace and we look for a close back above 0.9920 on Friday to help catalyze some fresh bullish momentum. Only a close back below 0.9800 will ultimately give reason for concern.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Weekly

020411FXTW_body_usdchf.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – This week’s harami candle pattern lends credence to the idea that “a major low was put in place in the final week of 2010.” The low, right at 9300, was just 50 pips below where the decline from 11730 would equal the decline from 12299. What’s more, the low occurred at a support line and was accompanied with RSI divergence. Based on long term wave structure, this rally from 9300 is probably a C wave and should be sharp. Bulls aren’t out of the woods yet but this week’s rally is a good start.

Joel - Although the market remains under some intense pressure with the latest declines stalling just shy of the late 2010 record lows at 0.9300, inability to establish fresh record lows on Wednesday followed by a break back above 0.9400 leaves us somewhat constructive with our outlook from here. Look for a break and close back above 0.9530 to confirm bullish bias and accelerate gains. Back below 0.9300 will of course negate outlook and give reason for pause.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly

020411FXTW_body_eurjpy.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – Last week’s sharp EURJPY reversal reinforces the larger bearish interpretation in which the decline from 11566 is the beginning of the next leg lower in the long term downtrend. RSI bearish signals on all 3 weekly parameters favor this view. A 60 day (3 month) bearish signal flashed on 1/27 as well. Bottom line, I continue to favor the long term downtrend with 100 a very real possibility in the next few months.

Joel - The market remains very well supported on dips with the overall price action defined as consolidative. However, given where the market trades historically, we continue to like the idea of being buyers down by current levels in favor of a major bullish reversal over the coming months. For now, key resistance comes in by the multi-week consolidation highs at 115.70, and a break and close back above this level will be required to officially force a shift in the structure. In the interim, buying dips towards 110.00 is favored.

Euro / British Pound

Weekly

020411FXTW_body_eurgbp.png, FX Technical Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie - A long term complex 4th wave correction remains underway in the EURGBP. Expectations are for continued weakness towards a channel line that intersects with the former 4th wave extreme at 7692 at the end of April. This week’s break of the prior week’s low and close beneath the 13 and 52 week averages reinforces a bearish bias.

Joel - The market continues to adhere to some major falling trend-line resistance, with the latest topside failure off of the channel top opening an acceleration of declines back below 0.8500. From here the risks are for additional declines over the medium-term with sights set on a move to fresh yearly lows by critical psychological barriers at 0.8000. Ultimately, only back above 0.8700 would negate and give reason for concern.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Past presentations on technical analysis are available to view. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, emailinstructor@dailyfx.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.