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FX Technical Weekly 04-30

FX Technical Weekly 04-30

2010-04-30 23:16:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Euro / US Dollar


  Joel: Tuesday’s sharp bullish reversal could be very encouraging for bulls, with the market now potentially looking to carve out a major bottom on the daily chart, after stalling out below parity on two separate attempts in recent days. Neckline resistance for the bottom comes in by 1.0215, and a break back above this level will be required to confirm pattern formation and accelerate gains towards a 1.0400 area pattern objective. So long as the market holds above 0.9930, the chances for a bullish reversal structure remain intact.  
   Jamie: There is no change to my outlook for additional EURUSD weakness.  The rally from 13200 was in 3 waves and the subsequent decline is an impulse.  The rally above 13270 probably completes an expanded flat.  With the EURUSD possibly in 3rd waves at multiple degrees of trend, this is not the time to get too cute with short entries.  The next objective is not until 12620 (161.8% extension).         



British Pound / US Dollar

wtgbpusd table

    Joel: Rallies have stalled out with the market failing to break back above the 1.5500 range highs and rolling back over in favor of a bearish continuation.  Initial support by 1.5190 has been taken out and next key support comes in by 1.5130. Look for a close below 1.5130 to accelerate declines and potentially warn of a retest of the 2010 lows by 1.4780 over the coming days. Any intraday rallies are expected to be well capped ahead of 1.5400.        
 Jamie:  I maintain a bearish GBPUSD bias.  “The rally from 14780 consists of two 3 leg advances; a double 3 complex correction.”  Since price has now dropped below both its short term channel and 15190, it is likely that the sharp rally to 15500 was a second wave.  15000 is the next potential support area.





    Joel: In the process of rebounding after slipping down just shy of 0.9100 in recent sessions. However, the market has been struggling to hold onto gains towards 0.9400 and we continue to retain a bearish bias, with a lower top sought out below 0.9385 ahead of the next major downside extension. In the interim, we recommend staying on the sidelines and awaiting a break back below 0.9135 for bearish confirmation. Back above 0.9385 negates and gives reason for pause. 
    Jamie: I remain focused on the reversal from two Monday’s ago (AUDUSD), which brings forth the potential for a double top with the November 2009 high at 9400.  However, bears have been unable to register a close below the short term support line (not to mention the longer term channel line).  Of note is the dark cloud cover candle pattern on the weekly (bearish reversal) combined with this week’s doji



New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

wtnzdusd table

      Joel:The latest break back above 0.7200 is somewhat concerning, with the market ending a bout of consolidation and inching closer to some key highs in the 0.7500’s. However, despite the latest surge, we continue to retain a bearish bias and still see the risks for some major declines over the medium-term. The 78.6% fib retracement off of the 2010 high-lows comes in by 0.7300 and we would recommend looking to take advantage of any additional strength towards this level as an opportunity to build an excellent short position. The 200-Day SMA just under 0.7100 is worth looking at, as it has helped to prop setbacks over the past several days, and a close below this longer-term SMA could very well accelerate declines.  
    Jamie: Since the October top at 7640, the NZDUSD has stair stepped lower.  The structure of the decline at this point is 3-3-5, which is the substructure of a flat.  However, there are several variations that would allow for the beginning of a larger decline.  As long as price is below 7446, I lean towards a long term bearish position.  7240 is resistance.  Watch the top of the short term channel as well. Notice that 21 day ATR is at its lowest point since July 2007 and July 2008 – in both instances the NZDUSD plunged immediately.  I am not saying that will happen now but I don’t think this is an indicator to ignore.  



US Dollar / Japanese Yen

twusdjpy table

  Joel: As per our earlier commentary, setbacks have been very well supported on a close basis above the 92.00 handle, which offered itself as some solid former resistance now turned support, and we now look for a higher low by 91.60 ahead of some fresh upside over the coming days back through the current 2010 high by 94.75. Only back under 91.60 would negate and give reason for pause. In the interim, look for any inter-day setbacks to be well supported ahead of 92.50. 
   Jamie:  If the USDJPY is on the verge of breaking higher, then price should remain above 927 (which was nearly reached last night).  9712 is where the rally from 8813 would equal the rally from 8481 (arithmetic) and is the initial objective.  However, as long as price is below 9481 the potential remains for a larger b wave correction in the form of a triangle or flat.  Keep that in mind.        


US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

wtusdcad04 table

  Joel: Tuesday’s sharp bullish reversal could be very encouraging for bulls, with the market now potentially looking to carve out a major bottom on the daily chart, after stalling out below parity on two separate attempts in recent days. Neckline resistance for the bottom comes in by 1.0215, and a break back above this level will be required to confirm pattern formation and accelerate gains towards a 1.0400 area pattern objective. So long as the market holds above 0.9930, the chances for a bullish reversal structure remain intact.  
  Jamie: The USDCAD has bounced from its lowest level since June 2008.  Last Wednesday’s candle was a hammer (bullish reversal), which was confirmed on a rally above its high.  RSI has broken to a new high (following divergence at the low) and the USDCAD has broken through its 20 day SMA.  Consider that 12 month rate of change has turned up from an historically low level and the bullish evidence presented commands attention.    










US Dollar / Swiss Franc

wtusdchf table

    Joel: The overall structure is constructive with a medium-term higher low now sought out by 1.0435 in favor of the next major upside extension beyond 1.0925 and towards 1.1500 further up. Ultimately, it is the 200-Day SMA that we use as our gauge for direction, with the longer-term SMA, which comes in just under 1.0500, expected to continue to prop setbacks on a close basis. So long as the market holds above this SMA on a close basis, we recommend looking for opportunities to be long. Short-term support now comes in by 1.0800. It is also worth noting that the 100-Day SMA has recently crossed up above the 200-Day SMA for the first time since September 2008, which is another bullish signal.  
   Jamie: From a simplistic point of view (which is often the best view), price action since February top has been nothing more than a sideways correction.  I am moving risk on longs up to 10700.  I am watching the spurious (non-Elliott) channel for potential resistance..



Euro / Japanese Yen

WTgbpjpy table

    Joel: As we had anticipated in Tuesday’s commentary, the market was unable to hold onto gains above 145.00, with a sharp bearish reversal ensuing, to put the pressure back on the downside. However, overall trade remains extremely choppy and no positions are recommended at current levels. Key levels to watch above and below come in by 145.90 and 139.0 respectively. .   
  Jamie: After breaking higher, the GBPJPY plummeted to test channel.  As long as the channel holds, respect the upside but be aware of divergence with RSI at the recent high.  Coming under Tuesday’s low would warrant a bearish breakout strategy.  




British Pound / Japanese Yen

gbpjpy trable

    Joel: Price action is very choppy here and although the market triggered a double top in the early week that would suggest a potential drop to 137.00, setbacks have stalled out by some solid former resistance turned support just over 139.00. From here, it is too difficult to establish clear directional bias, and we would recommend waiting for a break back above 145.00 or below 139.40 for a better indication of where the market is headed. 
    Jamie: The GBPJPY appears to be on the verge of breaking higher.  The next level of resistance is not until 15070.  14410 is short term support.  It is worth mentioning that March’s candle completed a piercing candle formation.  




Euro / British Pound

eurgbp0416 table

   Joel: Not looking to force any trades here, but the cross has been under some intense pressure of late and now eyes a break of next key support by 0.8600, which represents the 2010 low from January. However, any additional declines from there should be limited, with daily studies trading into oversold territory and warning of the need for a healthy corrective bounce. Should the market get down below 0.8600 in the coming week, we like the idea of buying into the dip. Look for a recovery rally back towards 0.8800 at a minimum over the coming days before considering bearish continuation..
    Jamie:After testing the January low at 8600, the EURGBP has bounced and is nearing initial resistance at 8745.  Trading above the channel line would indicate the potential for additional strength towards 8870-8915 (short term bullish opportunity).  Friday’s bullish engulfing candle pattern favors the upside..







 Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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