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FX Technical Weekly 03-05

FX Technical Weekly 03-05

2010-03-05 20:26:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Euro / US Dollar


Joel:  Setbacks have stalled for now ahead of  1.3400 (61.8% fib retrace of the 2008-2009 low-highs), and although the overall structure remains bearish, the market looks as though it may be attempting to carve out a short-term base.  However, it is still too difficult to call and the market could just as easily be in the process of a bearish consolidation ahead of the next major downside extension below 1.3440. A break back below 1.3440 will expose a test by next psychological barriers at 1.3000, while a close back above 1.3700 delays and opens the door for some additional short-term corrective upside.
Jamie:  A larger EURUSD rally, probably a 4th wave, may be underway towards 13870-14030.  4th waves are often choppy, usually a flat or triangle.  An impulsive rally from 13433 and corrective decline from 13738 may be complete.  This is bullish but I am uncomfortable with long positions at this point with equities testing key resistance levels (another view is presented with the USDCHF).

eurusd0305 tw


British Pound / US Dollar

eurgbp0305 table

Joel:  The most recent bout of bearish consolidation has been broken, with declines below critical psychological barriers by 1.5000 now exposing next psychological support by 1.4500 further down. Daily studies are however oversold, and we would prefer selling into rallies. The 10-Day SMA has more or less capped rallies over the past several days, so we would recommend looking to sell on a rally back towards the shorter-term SMA which currently comes in by 1.5200.        
 Jamie:   The GBPUSD continues to crawl higher and the next level of resistance is former support at 15151 and the 38.2% of the decline from 15825, at 15181.  Channel resistance meets the 38.2% on Monday during the European open.  I am looking for a turn lower in wave 5 of 3.  Price should not come close to 15533.


 gbpusd0305 tw chart


Australian Dollar / US Dollar

audusd0305 - table

Joel: The current rally out from 0.8580 is classed as corrective and we look for a lower top now by Wednesday’s 0.9035 high which loosely coincides with the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2010 high-lows. Ultimately, only back above 0.9200 gives reason for concern.
Jamie:    The AUDUSD advance is either complete or close to it.  9107 is the 61.8% extension of the rally from 8574 and 9148 is where the rally from 8796 would sport 2 equal legs.  Look for a top in that zone (in the event of additional strength).  Coming under 8930 should be enough to indicate a top.

audusd0305 tw chart


New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

nzdusd0305 tw table

Joel:    Price action has been quite choppy of late, but ultimately we retain a bearish bias and look for the recent highs by 0.7080 to continue to cap gains ahead of an eventual break back below 0.6800 over the coming days. 
Jamie:     The NZDUSD has lagged the AUDUSD and as more time passes, it becomes more probably that the rally from 6804 is complete.  Favor the downside against 7022.  A move above there would probably give way to strength above 7088 and a test of 7156.  It is worth noting that a break of 6800 would places the NZDUSD at its lowest since September 2009 and signal a breakout.  Focus would then be on 6600.   



US Dollar / Japanese Yen

usdjpy0305 table

Joel:     Currently in the process of chopping around, with the market most recently rolling over after stalling out above 92.00. Nevertheless, our core outlook in the pair is bullish, and we recommend looking to buy into the current dip. A bullish outside day on Thursday confirms our outlook with a resumption of gains now seen back towards initial resistance by 90.35 over the coming sessions. Only back below 88.00 negates and gives reason for pause.   
Jamie:The USDJPY has soared since yesterday’s low…over 200 pips.  The rally has reached the 50% retracement of the decline from 9217.  This level is reinforced by former congestion (circled).  The next level of resistance would be the 61.8% of the decline at 9063.  From a bigger picture perspective, a move above 9380 would signal that a larger 2nd wave is underway towards at least 10150.  

usdjpy0305 chart


US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

usdcad0305 table

Joel:   Our overall outlook for the pair remains highly constructive and as such, any dips should be used as formidable buy opportunities. The 78.6% fib retracement off of the 2010 low-highs comes in by the 1.0300 area and we would not expect to see the market close below this key support. Only a close back under 1.0300 would give reason for concern. Initial resistance comes in by 1.0370 and a break above will help to confirm bias.     
Jamie: The USDCAD has dropped below 10368 and to its lowest level since mid January.  The potential for a bottom and reversal remain, especially since the decline from 10577 is now 161.8% of the decline from 10684-10491 and the decline from 10684 is 100% of the decline from 10784.  Even if the decline from 10577 is a 3rd wave (rather than a c wave), a 4th wave correction would probably reach at least 10368.  Coming under 10200 could see a 2007 like acceleration of the decline.   


usdcad 0305 chart


US Dollar / Swiss Franc

usdchf0305 table

Joel: Continues to press higher with the market now fast approaching our 1.1000 objective from a few weeks back. A major base looks to be firmly in place and any setbacks are expected to be well supported ahead of 1.0500 in favor of a bullish continuation through 1.1000 and towards 1.1500 further up.  Daily studies are starting to look stretched so we do not rule out the possibility for a short-term pullback. 
Jamie:   The decline from the 10900 high February can be counted as a 3 wave setback and the rally from the low (10646) may be an impulse.  The other count is a double zigzag (a-b-c-x-a-b-c).  Confusion reigns at this point and the key levels are 10646 and 10900.  Watch for support at 10710 and 10750.  Coming under 10646 would negate the bullish count and shift focus to 10511.     

usdchf0305 chart


Euro / Japanese Yen

eurjpy0305 table

Joel:   Prospects for a recovery have been delayed, with the latest sharp reversal extending to fresh 2010 lows below 120.00. This suggests that a bout of bearish consolidation has been confirmed, with the market now eyeing a retest of the critical 2009 lows by 112.00 over the coming weeks. Daily studies are however bouncing from oversold and we would not recommend looking to sell at current levels. Ultimately, a break back above 125.25 is now required to take the pressure off of the downside. Aggressive players may however want to consider establishing a counter-trend long on a break back above 121.90.  
                           Jamie:   The EURJPY has held its February low and the break above 12193 exposes 12528.  Although far from clear, the decline from 13853 can be counted as a 5 wave decline (first wave is a truncation).  This would portend a move back to at least 12528 and possibly 12745. 

eurjpy0305 chart


British Pound / Japanese Yen

gbpjpy0305 table

Joel:   Wednesday’s bullish reversal day marks and end to a series of nine consecutive lower tops and nine consecutive negative closes, which could finally be warning of the start to a much needed corrective bounce. Daily studies are oversold and we look for an upside correction back towards 138.00 at a minimum before considering the possibility of bearish resumption. 
Jamie:  The GBPJPY has rallied from trendline support and is approaching the 2/5 low of 13822.  Trendline resistance is at 13990 on Monday and decreases about 30 pips per day.  

gbpjpy0305 chart


Euro / British Pound

eurgbp0305 table

Joel:  The measured move objective from the inverse head & shoulders pattern triggered back in early February has now been reached and slightly exceeded, and we would now recommend that bears look to take advantage of current levels to look to re-establish a very attractive short trade. Look for a medium-term lower top to carve out by 0.9130 ahead of the next major downside extension back below 0.8600 over the coming weeks. Only back above 0.9155 gives reason for concern.  
                             Jamie:Bigger picture “the EURGBP rally is probably just (most of) wave D of a triangle that has been underway since December 2008.  Expect consolidation near term with short term support at 8920-75 before additional strength targets 9244.”  Consolidation/pullback is underway in a 4th wave.  Support should be strong down to 8950.  After finding bottom, the EURGBP is expected to make a new high (above 9153).      

eurgbp 0305 chart



 Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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