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Euro / US Dollar

eurusd0416 table



Jamie:  Failing to exceed 13700, the EURUSD has now retraced its entire advance from the ‘bailout’ rally gap open.  By definition, the pair is still in a correction until we see 5 waves down from 13695.  If we get that decline, then I’ll look to get short for the next leg down towards 13000.  13420 is short term support.  


British Pound / US Dollar

gbpusd0416 table

Jamie:  A 4th wave correction may be complete in the GBPUSD just above 15500.  The rally from 14780 consists of two 3 leg advances, which is termed a double 3 complex correction.  Dropping below the short term support line would increase confidence in the downside.



Australian Dollar / US Dollar

audusd0416 table




Jamie: The AUDUSD has held the topside of the former resistance line, which is bullish.  Still, Monday’s reversal brings forth the potential for a double top with the November 2009 high at 9400.  Dropping below channel support (and 9220) would indicate a reversal opportunity.  Until then, waters are murky. 





New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

nzdusd0416 table




Since the October top at 7640, the NZDUSD has stair stepped lower.  The structure of the decline at this point is 3-3-5, which is the substructure of a flat.  However, there are several variations that would allow for the beginning of a larger decline and the October candle (below) has the ‘look’ of a more important top.  As long as price is below 7446, I lean towards a long term bearish position.  7240 is resistance. 


US Dollar / Japanese Yen

usdjpy0416 table

Jamie: The USDJPY has slid lower and former resistance at 9200 is now in focus.  Bigger picture, I remain bullish against 9100 in anticipation of a move above 9480.  (9700 is an objective from a longer term Fibonacci extension).


US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

usdcad0416 table

    Jamie: A move through channel resistance is required in order to trigger a reversal.  A move above would warrant bullish action against 9950 for a move to 10300.  With 5 waves potentially complete at 9950, I lean towards the upside.



US Dollar / Swiss Franc

usdchf0416 table

    Jamie: The overlapping nature of the USDCHF advance from 9916 is a warning that the rally may be a completed 3 wave correction.  Additionally, the USDCHF is breaking below a nearly 5 month support line for the second time this month.  The decline from 10790 is impulsive, which is also bearish.  Although there may be a short term correction back to 10620, the pair looks vulnerable over the next several weeks.  Bottom line – the picture is mixed and there is little confidence in direction at the current juncture.  


Euro / Japanese Yen

eurjpy0416 table

Jamie: The EURJPY remains within its bullish channel (which is defended by the 63 day or 3 month SMA) on a closing basis.  Coming under 12341 would require reassessment and perhaps retraction of the bullish call to 13000. 


British Pound / Japanese Yen

gdbjpy0416 table

      Jamie: After exceeding its resistance line, the GBPJPY has pulled back over 400 pips.  A drop below 14090 would expose the March 17 high at 13940.  If the decline from just above 14500 extends into an impulse, then there will be an opportunity to short on a bounce.  Until then, I do not see an opportunity.    


Euro / British Pound

eurgbp0416 table

Jamie: Wave E of a triangle that has been underway since December 2008 (last day of that month) may be complete.  After sliding just below 8750, the pair turned up.  I favor the upside and price ideally remains above 8704.  8600 is critical for the bullish triangle case.Joel:  




 Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to