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Euro / US Dollar

eur1

Joel: The break below 1.3530 on Thursday now marks an end to the latest consolidation and opens a fresh downside extension that ultimately exposes a drop towards 1.3000 over the coming days. Next key short-term support comes in by 1.3420, and we look for a test of this level over the coming sessions. Daily studies are however looking stretched, so we would prefer to recommend looking to sell into rallies, rather than selling downside breaks. Look for a fresh lower top to carve out below 1.3840, ideally by the 10-Day SMA, which currently resides in the mid-1.3600’s.
Jamie: Yesterday’s break may have been a terminal thrust from a triangle but the break also distanced price from the 100% extension level (13650), which increases . With price pressing the bottom of its channel, focus remains on tshe 161.8% extension at 13073 (which is why the target is 13100).  Staying below 13658 keeps the trend pointed lower.  13423 may provide support.

eur2

 

British Pound / US Dollar

gbp1

Joel: The break below 1.5535 on Thursday now marks an end to the latest consolidation and opens a fresh downside extension that ultimately exposes a drop towards 1.5000 over the coming days. Next key short-term support comes in by 1.5295, and we look for a test of this level over the coming sessions. Daily studies are however looking stretched, so we would prefer to recommend looking to sell into rallies, rather than selling downside breaks. Look for a fresh lower top to carve out below 1.5815, ideally by the 10-Day SMA, which currently resides in the mid-1.6600’s.
Jamie:  The GBPUSD has broken lower but the decline from 15825 may be wave 5 of the 5 wave decline from 16464.  Price has reached the mid 15300’s…an important level in that 15356 was a breakout level from 2009.  However, do not neglect an extended 3rd of a 3rd count from 15825; especially since price has broken below unorthodox channel support.  These breaks often signal the beginning of an extended move.  15500 is resistance.

gbp2

 

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

aud1

Joel: The current rally out from 0.8580 is classed as corrective and we look for a lower top now by Wednesday’s 0.9035 high which loosely coincides with the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2010 high-lows. Ultimately, only back above 0.9200 gives reason for concern.
Jamie: The AUDUSD has reached the area of the former 4th wave (common topping area) and the 61.8% retracement of the decline.  Resistance extends to 9133 and I expect a top to form. (if one has not already formed at 9044).  8780 is potential support.

aud2

 

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

nzd1

Joel: Although it is less prominent than in Aud/Usd, the market here has also arguably carved out a major double top that ultimately projects a fresh wave of declines down towards 0.6500 over the coming weeks. Look for a fresh lower top now at 0.7080 ahead of the next downside extension back below 0.6810 and towards 0.6500.
Jamie:  The NZDUSD has broken its short term corrective channel, which suggests the return of the larger decline.  A move above 7088 would expose 7123/56.  6900 is potential short term support.  Initial support on a break below 6800 would be 6600.

nzd2

 

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

jpy1

Joel: Has finally ended the latest bout of consolidation with the market breaking back above key short-term resistance at 91.25 to now open the door for fresh upside over the coming days. The break back above 91.25 now completely negates the violent single-day pullback from a couple of weeks back and potentially exposes a direct retest of next key resistance by 93.75 further up. Any intraday setbacks should be well propped ahead of 90.00.
Jamie: The USDJPY rally (from 8481) is corrective, which leaves the pair vulnerable to weakness below that level.  Still, a larger correction may be underway since the decline from 9380 is not impulsive either.  The rally has blown through the top of its short term channel and reached resistance from 9200.  9140 is short term support.  From a pattern perspective, clarity is lacking.

jpy2

 

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

cad1

Joel: Our overall outlook for the pair remains highly constructive and as such, the latest round of sharp setbacks into the 1.0400’s should be used as a formidable opportunity to build a compelling long position. Only a close back under 1.0350 (78.6% fib retrace) would give reason for concern. Friday’s break back above 1.0500 reaffirms and should accelerate gains.
Jamie: I maintain a longer term bullish bias against 10223.  10415, which is former resistance and the 61.8% retracement, has held.  Long term traders can establish longs against the January low but short term traders should await clarification of the near term picture.  Near term, an expanding triangle may be underway as wave iv of c.  Look for support near 10350.  10583 is potential resistance. 

cad2

 

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

chf1

Joel: Continues to press higher with the market now fast approaching our 1.1000 objective from a few weeks back. A major base looks to be firmly in place and any setbacks are expected to be well supported ahead of 1.0500 in favor of a bullish continuation through 1.1000 and towards 1.1500 further up.  Daily studies are starting to look stretched so we do not rule out the possibility for a short-term pullback. 
Jamie: I remain bigger picture bullish the USDCHF but bulls should keep risk tight given the near term chop.  Bottom line; stay bullish above 10645.  11026-11091 is a target area.

chf2

 

Euro / Japanese Yen

eurjpy1

Joel: The cross finally appears to have put in some form of a base by 121.00, with the market recovering and most recently breaking back above some recent consolidation highs at 124.25 to confirm the basing.  From here, scope exists for some fresh upside towards next key resistance at 127.00 over the coming sessions. Any setbacks should be well propped ahead of 122.50. Back under 122.50 concerns.
Jamie: The EURJPY has reached congestion from its previous 4th wave (12440) but a continuing correction could reach 12695 (100% ext of first 3 wave rally).  Staying above 12274 keeps the path of least resistance upward.

eurjpy2

 

British Pound / Japanese Yen

gbpjpy1

Joel: The earlier break below some very prominent and familiar range lows by 140.00, proved to be false, with the market in the end, adhering to the range lows and subsequently bouncing. Price action looks constructive and could now open an acceleration back towards 145.00 over the coming sessions. Any intraday setbacks should be well supported ahead of the 10-Day SMA by 141.00.  However, a close back below the 10-Day SMA concerns.
Jamie: “Big picture, it remains my contention that the rally to 16310 completed a 4th wave correction and that the GBPJPY will eventually decline to a new low beneath 11879.”  After stalling at the top of short term channel resistance, the GBPJPY has slid to the bottom and just below the channel.  It is unclear if the larger decline has resumed but 14535 remains the key level (trend down against there). 

gbpjpy2

 

Euro / British Pound

eurgbp1

Joel: While our core view has been intensely bearish for some time now, the latest sharp pullbacks leave us sidelined and looking to re-establish fresh short positions into rallies rather than at current levels. Daily studies now warn of a corrective rally, with the market triggering an inverse head & shoulders pattern that now projects gains back towards 0.9000 over the coming days. Any rallies into 0.9000 should then be used as an opportunity to build on existing shorts. 
Jamie: Staying below 8846 keeps the EURGBP headed lower in a final small 5th wave in order to complete the decline from 9158.  8537-8574 would be a target area.  The lower level is where wave 5 = wave 1 (of c) and the higher level is where wave c = wave a (of C).  A rally above 8846 would favor the idea that wave c of a triangle (triangle began in late December 2008) is complete.

eurgbp2

 Tradelist

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Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.