0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Ai Group Services Index (JUL) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 31.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-06
  • After a brief pause at the end of July, the #gold price rally has resumed full steam ahead in August, with fresh all-time highs emerging for each of the past three days.Get your $XAUUSD market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/tNl7KTX8CD https://t.co/4I5nHcw1GM
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 104.74 S2: 105.3 S1: 105.52 R1: 106.08 R2: 106.42 R3: 106.98 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • White House Chief of Staff Meadows says stimulus discussions will last as long as needed tonight - BBG
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.61% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.60% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.14% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/tnW4af9aVr
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 7.24% Gold: 1.33% Oil - US Crude: 0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/YbvtFCzKwH
  • US moves to tighten disclosure requirements for Chinese listed securities on US exchanges - BBG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.93%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.34%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/2L02UUzPZP
  • The S&P 500 continues its move higher on Thursday with investor hopes for fiscal stimulus rise as the stalemate in congress endures. Now within 2% of its prior all-time high,Get your S&P500 market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/LQvQw51Vcy https://t.co/ttKETOBHeU
  • #AUDUSD boldly broke above a 2019 resistance range, but negative RSI divergence shows upside momentum is slowing. Do you think the pair will capitulate or break past the upcoming ceiling at 0.7295? https://t.co/FV64qtuXXL
Currency Volatility: Euro Potentially Under-pricing Italian Political Crisis

Currency Volatility: Euro Potentially Under-pricing Italian Political Crisis

2019-08-20 09:30:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

EuroPrice Analysis and Talking Points:

  • PM Conte Faces No-Confidence Vote, Euro volatility Muted However
  • Rising Odds of a Snap Election

See our quarterly EUR forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q3!

PM Conte Faces No-Confidence Vote, Euro volatility Muted However

Italian politics will take center stage for the Euro with Prime Minister Conte set to face a no-confidence after he addresses the Senate from 1400BST. However, despite the increased political uncertainty, while the Bund-BTP spread has widened over 4bps this morning, showing a rise in risk premium. This has not been reflected in the FX space with Euro implied vols notably subdued at 5.9, suggesting a potential underpricing of the risks attached to Italy. Consequently, EUR/USD O/n ATM break-evens imply a meagre move of 27pips(meaning that option traders need to see a move of at least 27pips in either direction in order to realise gains)

Currency Volatility: Euro Potentially Under-pricing Italian Political Crisis

Source: DailyFX

Rising Odds of a Snap Election

If PM Conte loses the no-confidence or resigns before the vote takes place, President Matttarella will have two options. Either gather party leaders in order to form a technocratic government with the sole purpose of passing the 2020 budget (due October 15th) or call for snap elections, which could take place as soon as the Autumn (most bearish scenario).

Technocratic Government: This would likely be the most supportive scenario for the Euro and Italian BTPs. However, the difficulty is that the 5 Star Part have explicitly ruled out forming an alliance with the center-left PD party.

Snap Elections: Failure to form a temporary government raises the likelihood of snap-elections as soon as the Autumn. This would likely be the most bearish scenario for the Euro, potentially pushing the currency below the 1.10 handle, given the increased uncertainty surrounding the passing of the 2020 Budget, while the League party have also seen a commanding lead in opinion polling.

Italian Election Monitor: Italy Crisis to Re-emerge Amid Risk of Snap Elections

FX TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.