News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (JUL) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: €-0.98B
  • Fitch on China Property Developers - View will turn negative if sales in H2 21 fall below that achieved in H2 19 and/or if sharp fall follows through to H1 22 - Government policies in sector remain tight and show no sign of imminent loosening
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • (USD Weekly Tech) US Dollar Dominant Uptrend Back In Focus: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CHF
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Join @IlyaSpivak at 22:00 EST/2:00 GMT for his cross-market weekly outlook webinar. Register here:
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar Monday morning at 8:30am ET - Mid-Week Market Update on Wednesday at 9:30am ET -
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here:
Currency Volatility: Euro Potentially Under-pricing Italian Political Crisis

Currency Volatility: Euro Potentially Under-pricing Italian Political Crisis

Justin McQueen, Strategist

EuroPrice Analysis and Talking Points:

  • PM Conte Faces No-Confidence Vote, Euro volatility Muted However
  • Rising Odds of a Snap Election

See our quarterly EUR forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q3!

PM Conte Faces No-Confidence Vote, Euro volatility Muted However

Italian politics will take center stage for the Euro with Prime Minister Conte set to face a no-confidence after he addresses the Senate from 1400BST. However, despite the increased political uncertainty, while the Bund-BTP spread has widened over 4bps this morning, showing a rise in risk premium. This has not been reflected in the FX space with Euro implied vols notably subdued at 5.9, suggesting a potential underpricing of the risks attached to Italy. Consequently, EUR/USD O/n ATM break-evens imply a meagre move of 27pips(meaning that option traders need to see a move of at least 27pips in either direction in order to realise gains)

Currency Volatility: Euro Potentially Under-pricing Italian Political Crisis

Source: DailyFX

Rising Odds of a Snap Election

If PM Conte loses the no-confidence or resigns before the vote takes place, President Matttarella will have two options. Either gather party leaders in order to form a technocratic government with the sole purpose of passing the 2020 budget (due October 15th) or call for snap elections, which could take place as soon as the Autumn (most bearish scenario).

Technocratic Government: This would likely be the most supportive scenario for the Euro and Italian BTPs. However, the difficulty is that the 5 Star Part have explicitly ruled out forming an alliance with the center-left PD party.

Snap Elections: Failure to form a temporary government raises the likelihood of snap-elections as soon as the Autumn. This would likely be the most bearish scenario for the Euro, potentially pushing the currency below the 1.10 handle, given the increased uncertainty surrounding the passing of the 2020 Budget, while the League party have also seen a commanding lead in opinion polling.

Italian Election Monitor: Italy Crisis to Re-emerge Amid Risk of Snap Elections


--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.