News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your basics right. Find out what is stock market volatility and how you can trade It here:
  • The Japanese Yen continues to be pummeled against most major currencies. Get your weekly Japanese Yen forecast from @HathornSabin here:
  • The US Dollar paused its advance against ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD eyes a key trendline, USD/THB risks stalling, USD/PHP enters consolidation as USD/IDR continues ranging. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The economic calendar has its top listings (China GDP among them), but traders would do well to keep tabs on themes like the Fed outlook, an imminent Bitcoin record and lurking China contagion. What I'm watching for next week:
  • Crude oil and coal prices hit fresh levels overnight as supply issues threaten to worsen an already fragile energy situation. Asia is particularly susceptible after regional flooding shuttered coal mine operations. Get your market update here:
  • The Japanese Yen has moved lower across the board and is making multi-year lows against the USD. Will it snap the range, and do the same against EUR? Get your market here:
  • The British Pound has bounced off its low against USD while it’s trapped in wide ranges against the EUR and CHF. How long will GBP be tied to its Continental Europe constituents? Find out here:
  • (Weekly Fundy) Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Back on the Offensive as Covid Restrictions Ease #AUD $AUDUSD #Covid
  • The Australian Dollar is seemingly back on the offensive as lockdowns ease in Sydney and Melbourne. Improving sentiment may allow AUD/USD to capitalize on rising equities and commodity prices. Get your weekly $AUD forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 appear to be vulnerable as retail traders continue to buy into their pullbacks. This is shown via IGCS, which is typically a contrarian indicator. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
Euro Price at Risk as Implied Volatility Spikes Ahead of ECB

Euro Price at Risk as Implied Volatility Spikes Ahead of ECB

Rich Dvorak, Analyst


  • EURUSD implied volatility looks set to rise off historic lows
  • EURGBP, EURCAD, EURJPY, EURAUD implied volatility measures also rise as the upcoming ECB monetary policy update looms
  • Download the free Q3 Euro Forecast from DailyFX for comprehensive fundamental and technical outlook

Earlier this month, we highlighted how EURUSD implied volatility dropped to multi-year lows. Euro implied volatility is showing signs of turning higher, however, as key event risk surrounding pivots in European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy begins to unfold.

According to overnight swaps pricing, it is more likely than not that the dovish turn in outlook by the ECB will be confirmed next week with the central bank teed up to cut its policy interest rate by 10 basis points. Although, if the ECB does act to ease monetary policy, it will likely spark Euro currency volatility seeing that the probability of an ECB rate cut at its July 25 meeting is near-split at 51.2% in favor of a cut with the remaining 48.8% priced for a hold.


Spot EURUSD price chart technical analysis ahead of July ECB meeting

Spot EURUSD is estimated to fluctuate within a 182-pip range between 1.1136 and 1.1313 with a 68% statistical probability judging by EURUSD 1-week implied volatility of 5.86%. If the ECB cuts rates, spot EURUSD could be expected to make a bearish move below technical support provided by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May 2019 low from the December 2018 high, which would also threaten the recently-formed bullish uptrend line.

On the other hand, a firm stance on rates and steady outlook provided by the ECB and the central bank’s President Mario Draghi could keep spot EURUSD bid and reiterate the Euro’s recent strength relative to the US Dollar and send the currency pair toward the 1.13 handle.


EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURAUD, EURCAD implied volatility ahead of July ECB Meeting

EURJPY and EURAUD are expected to be the most active major Euro currency pairs over the next week with 1-week implied volatility readings of 6.59% and 6.29% respectively. EURCAD, EURUSD and EURGBP follow closely behind in order with 1-week implied volatility readings of 5.69%, 5.68% and 5.53%. All of the 1-week Euro implied volatility readings have climbed substantially since Wednesday, which reflects the potentially high-impact event risk posed by the upcoming July ECB meeting next week.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.