News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/n0CVWWOJDe https://t.co/0uLjsQ2gwM
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here: https://t.co/D8DXSAdpqC https://t.co/nfiFAlyYXv
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0unrdT https://t.co/mIsVJ4zTbB
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/hymrumanUY
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfs2Iz https://t.co/6dAqxsVfxJ
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Xu3ZT7EtrW https://t.co/5VHKn52MaA
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHq4Np https://t.co/mf9rsmIvaW
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/mYWO0Eta0P
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/ZvEMQuFjSs https://t.co/rMmq9cehnY
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/tm4k3IVzHr
US Dollar’s Fate May Be Sealed; US NFP Around the Corner – The Macro Setup

US Dollar’s Fate May Be Sealed; US NFP Around the Corner – The Macro Setup

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Advertisement

THE MACRO SETUP OVERVIEW:

  • Stocks’ earnings data was strong; rocky 3Q’21 may be underway
  • US economic data begins to sour, but the delta variant gives the Fed cover
  • US Treasury yields, US real yields drop to new lows, dragging down the DXY Index

INTO THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER

This week’s The Macro Setup, featuring Dan Nathan and Guy Adami, recapped the latest round of earnings from US companies, which came in better than expected. But there may be troubles ahead with the delta variant surge that could upend forward earnings expectations for at least 3Q’21, which is broadly consistent with seasonality data that suggests that the middle four months of year 2 of a bull market produces the most difficult trading environment.

Speaking of the delta variant surge, it’s becoming clearer that the Federal Reserve will use the developments as a tool to keep stimulus flowing in the near term. The July FOMC meeting hinted that a taper may eventually come down the pipeline, but rates markets appear convinced that this doesn’t mean an accelerated timeline for interest rate hikes any time soon. Declining commodity prices – from lumber, to copper, to oil – suggest that inflationary pressures are duly subsiding.

All of this makes for a trickery situation for the US Dollar. A failed breakout at the end of July, coupled with lower US Treasury yields – as well as US real yields at record lows – suggests that more tough sledding may be ahead for the greenback. Which makes gold’s situation all the more concerning: if gold prices can’t rally in this environment, what will it take to light a fire under bullion?

*For commentary from Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and myself on the US Dollar (via the DXY Index), the US S&P 500, gold prices, among others, please watch the video embedded at the top of this article.

CHARTS OF THE WEEK

GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY CHART (AUGUST 2020 TO AUGUST 2021) (CHART 1)

US Dollar’s Fate May Be Sealed; US NFP Around the Corner – The Macro Setup

DXY INDEX PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY CHART (AUGUST 2020 TO AUGUST 2021) (CHART 2)

US Dollar’s Fate May Be Sealed; US NFP Around the Corner – The Macro Setup

GBP/USD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY CHART (DECEMBER 2020 TO AUGUST 2021) (CHART 3)

US Dollar’s Fate May Be Sealed; US NFP Around the Corner – The Macro Setup

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES