We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Fascinating read. Highly recommend. https://t.co/ZU71iqJzXe
  • The #Euro has stalled after brief recovery against the US Dollar. The dominant price trend bias continues to favor weakness on the horizon. Get your $EURUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/ooJMpdE8xq https://t.co/yT5oj0G82s
  • #USDCHF pivot points (daily) – S3: 0.985, S2: 0.9886, S1: 0.9908, R1: 0.9943, R2: 0.9957, R3: 0.9993- https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @lisaabramowicz1: Hedge-fund firms reported the eighth straight month of client redemptions in October, the longest stretch of withdrawa…
  • RT @KyleR_IG: 2 down, 5 to go. Australia's was poor, this is in-line. Europe's likely the most significant now. A meet, or better yet, beat…
  • Japan’s benchmark #Nikkei 225 stock index may be on course break a three-month uptrend, making good on an early warning signal from the $USDJPY exchange rate. Get your market update from https://t.co/jja7S4b74k
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (NOV P), Actual: 48.6 Expected: N/A Previous: 48.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-22
  • USD/CAD Price May Drop, Euro Braces for New Trump EU Trade Probe? $USDCAD #Euro #TradeWars - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2019/11/22/USDCAD-Price-May-Drop-Euro-Braces-for-New-Trump-EU-Trade-Probe.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/XjHNhX1vcL
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (NOV P) due at 00:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 48.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-22
  • 🇯🇵 JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (OCT), Actual: 0.4% Expected: 0.4% Previous: 0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-21
Gold Throws a Curve Ball

Gold Throws a Curve Ball

2016-04-11 16:55:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Price & Time covers key technical themes daily and can be delivered to your inbox each morning by joining the distribution list: Price & Time

Talking Points

  • Long-term bull market time retracement
  • Price action over next couple of weeks is critical

Gold Throws a Curve Ball

Gold Throws a Curve Ball

I have been focused on the first few weeks of the second quarter in gold because of the chart above. It shows that this month is the 38% retracement of the amount of time between the low in 1999 and the high in 2011. It suggests that the metal could be at an important inflection point. I had been looking for the metal to weaken into this period as a secondary low into this month would (in the way I look at things) have confirmed the low in gold late last year as being something quite significant and open the door to a much more aggressive rally in the months ahead. With the metal strengthening into the turn window we have gotten a bit of a “curve ball”.

Looking for real-time positioning data? Find out HERE

The risk in my view now is that we put in some sort of meaningful high shortly and undergo a few weeks/months of pronounced weakness. The reaction around 1285 over the next couple of weeks will likely be key. A failure to gain much traction (marginal high OK) above 1285 over the next few weeks followed by a break of 1225 would warn that a top is indeed playing out. In previous writings I have compared “turn windows” to highway exits. Just because they are there doesn’t mean that the market has to take them. When markets ignore an ‘exit’ it is often as powerful if not more so than a turn itself as it signals the underlying trend is incredibly strong. If gold can ignore this ‘time resistance’ and make new highs into the end of the month then I think we can start talking about a much more important bull market here. This would fit well with the long-term timing relationships exhibited in silver at the lows in 2014 and last December.

What is the #1 mistake most FX traders make? Find out HERE.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.