We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • En español: ¿Qué es el DAX 30? Guía del trader sobre el #DAX30 #GER30 #trading https://t.co/5ERZBPd4hf https://t.co/00FPI76keU
  • Lowe: Weakness in consumption growth was GDP surprise $AUDUSD
  • ...and despite the surge in volatility last week (over 55% jump from the Nov 26 low to Dec 3 high), the net speculative short futures position barely budged https://t.co/or2EZnslUc
  • Lowe: Confident consumers will spend more, but many people have high debt so spending takes longer $AUD
  • RBA's Lowe: GDP outcome was broadly in line with expectations $AUDUSD
  • The $VIX went through a wild ride this past session. Looks like there is far more uncertainty under the surface than what the SPX itself is showing https://t.co/zDiCZMc12q
  • RT @Fxhedgers: "U.S tariffs on Chinese imports still scheduled to go on Dec 15th, China is preparing for those tariffs to go active." : tra…
  • $AUDJPY may be breaking under a Rising Wedge. Still plenty of event risk this week to drive price action for the sentiment-linked pair (#Fed, #tradewars, #UKelection2019, and more). A daily close under 73.36 could pave the way to revisit October lows - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/daniel_dubrovsky/2019/11/07/FX-Trading-Setups-in-AUDJPY-On-US-China-Trade-Talk-Outcomes.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/EPUOuSqy6V
  • After breaking beneath support at $7,100 in late November, #Bitcoin has rebounded to $7,400. Get your $btc market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/jM8fGbvxjg https://t.co/vmbjgGrZ7J
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.24% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.10% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.05% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.02% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.31% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Lhvac9uclS
EUR/USD – Breakout Hangs in the Balance

EUR/USD – Breakout Hangs in the Balance

2016-02-16 20:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Price & Time covers key technical themes daily and can be delivered to your inbox each morning by joining the distribution list: Price & Time

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD turns down from trendline resistance
  • 1.1050 area a critical support confluence

EUR/USD – Breakout Hangs in the Balance

EUR/USD – Breakout Hangs in the Balance

EUR/USD failed last week from just above the 1.1340 internal trendline that connects the March, April and August 2015 lows. A fairly sharp correction has followed, but the euro is still well above the key support levels of interest around 1.1050 (see below). My take on the euro has been fairly simple this year. Within the key long-term support/resistance zone (symmetry lines related to 1995 high and 1985 low) between 1.0600 and 1.1600 I am fairly neutral on the pair. A breach of one of those levels is really needed in my view to set off anything meaningful from a longer-term directional standpoint.

Get DailyFX’s top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

In the shorter-term, the break from the multi-week sideways range earlier this month occurred at the ‘right time’ as it coincided (+/- a day) with the 100% retracement in time of the March - August 2015 advance. Interestingly the 61.8% retracement in time of this same move occurred at the lows in December. As a result, I have been open to this move extending to test more important resistance perhaps even as high as the critical 1.1600. The turndown from trendline resistance last week (at the end of a “Gann death zone”) now has me doubting this take, but ultimately it would take a move under the 1.1060/35 zone to invalidate this positive short-term view.

What is the #1 mistake FX traders make? Find out HERE.

The 1.1060/35 area looks to be a key action/reaction zone for a variety of reasons, but mainly because it is such a clear area of confluence. Between 1.1035 and 1.1060 there is the December high, the 200-day moving average, the 38% retracement of the December – February range, the 50% retracement of the year-to-date range and the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high. Individually these are levels that I would want to be aware of, but their close proximity suggests this should be a key pivot zone for the euro. Traction below this zone would warn that the move off the December lows has only been corrective, while a successful hold above would reaffirm breakout from earlier in the month and open the door to a more important test of resistance in the weeks ahead.

Want to see how other traders in the market are positioned? Find out HERE

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.