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Price & Time: USDOLLAR  - Negative December Seasonality A Dud?

Price & Time: USDOLLAR - Negative December Seasonality A Dud?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Price & Time covers key technical themes daily and can be delivered to your inbox each morning by joining the distribution list: Price & Time

Talking Points

  • Negative seasonal USD tendencies so for non-factor
  • Is this a positive heading into January?

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USDOLLAR: December Seasonality A Dud?

Price & Time: USDOLLAR  - Negative December Seasonality A Dud?

The USD has held up relatively well so far this month. Remember December is one of the worst months for the dollar from a seasonality perspective so the fact that the FXCM USDOLLAR Index (basked of USD versus EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD) is pretty much unchanged this far into month is probably a good sign. Obviously, there is a lot of time left before year-end so I would not completely write off the possibility that negative seasonal forces reassert themselves before then, but time is ticking. January, on the other hand, is historically a very strong month for the Greenback so if it continues to hold up here there is probably a decent chance that we could see a strong move to start the year.

The 12,220 level in USDOLLAR has obviously proven pretty sticky. A weekly close above there is likely needed to set the stage for a more important move higher. The month-to-date lows around 12,040 are obviously a key near-term pivot as weakness below this level would trigger a minor topping pattern and warn that the last couple of weeks of the year could get rocky. However, it would probably take a move under the 200-day moving average and the 38% retracement of the May - November advance around 12,000 to really turn the technical picture negative.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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