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Price & Time: USD/MXN – Big Break Ahead?

Price & Time: USD/MXN – Big Break Ahead?

2015-12-09 15:25:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/MXN break multi-month trendline
  • Reaction around September high in focus

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USD/MXN: Big Break Ahead?

Price & Time: USD/MXN – Big Break Ahead?

USD/MXN came to life this week as it broke above a trendline connecting the September and November highs. This could easily be construed as a breakout from a multi-month consolidation within a longstanding uptrend so it needs to be monitored closely. Given the important timing relationships surrounding the high that occurred in late September, I really need to see 17.3400 overcome in order to get excited about the prospects of another impulsive move higher developing in USD/MXN.

Now I have been admittedly cautious on USD/MXN since the start of the 4th quarter as the cycle turn window around the end of 3Q raised the possibility of a deeper correction in the exchange rate. Despite plenty of opportunities, this weakness never really surfaced which presumably highlights the strength of the underlying trend. As I have stated in prior notes, the more interesting move for me would be a break of 17.3400, as it would invalidate the timing resistance. Breaks of time resistance often times are aggressive. This looks a lot more likely now following the action of the past few days, but we are not out of the woods just yet. A failure sub 17.3400 days followed by a break of 16.3200 would turn focus back to the downside.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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