Price & Time: S&P 500 - Top of the Range or Bottoming Pattern?
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- Rebounds from key time support
- Important resistance test ahead
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S&P 500: Top End of the Range or Bottoming Pattern?
The S&P 500 (FXCM CFD) has rallied over 100 bucks from the low post NFP. The price action while impressive has yet to challenge any real levels of material resistance - at least the way I look at things.
Since August I have been looking at the price action from 2011 as general guide. In 2011 the SPX had important peaks in February & May before breaking down in August. This was followed by a volatile range that lasted several months before the index rallied into the end of the year. Similar things have happened this year in the S&P 500 arguing for a wild consolidation in the index over the end of the 3rd quarter and the beginning of the 4th. We have certainly gotten that since August as the index has oscillated in a large 200+ point range.
However, analogs are meant to be broken so as we approach the top of the range it is the moment of truth of sorts for spoos traders. If we are still following the general path from 2011 then the index should run into resistance somewhere around 2000-2020. Traction above here especially on a daily closing basis would signal the analog has broken and a more important move higher is probably underway. A failure, on the other hand, around current levels would indicate the SPX is vulnerable to another move down and a test of the bottom end of the range.
The cyclical picture complicates things a little bit as the reversal last week from the 78.6% retracement of the August – September range in the 1875 area came right at the 161.8% retracement in time of the 2002 – 2007 rally in the S&P 500. That is some fairly important timing and all things considered probably bumps up the odds for a more important move higher having already started. However, the week of October 19th is growing in importantance and a clear potential time hurdle. Whatever the case, 2000 – 2020 likely holds the key.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.