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Price & Time: Downside Retest Coming Up For USD/JPY?

Price & Time: Downside Retest Coming Up For USD/JPY?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Price & Time covers key technical themes daily and can be delivered to your inbox each morning by joining the distribution list: Price & Time
  • USD/JPY testing key resistance zone
  • EUR/USD cracks important support

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Downside Retest Coming Up For USD/JPY?

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under aggressive pressure since failing near the 1.1685 12th square root relationship of the year-to-date low earlier in the week
  • Our near-term trend bias is now lower in the euro
  • The 61.8% retracement of the July – August advance near 1.1150 is the next downside attraction of note with weakness below needed to re-affirm the budding downtrend
  • A minor turn window is eyed today
  • A daily close back over 1.1500 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

EUR/USD Strategy: Square

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.1100

*1.1150

1.1235

1.1405

*1.1500

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Price & Time: Downside Retest Coming Up For USD/JPY?

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD continues to meander around a critical long-term support confluence at .7085 - .7165
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below .7415, but this could change if price action turns more constructive at this key support
  • A daily/weekly close below .7085 is needed set off a more important move to the downside
  • A Fibonacci turn window is seen here
  • A daily close over .7415 would turn us positive on AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Like only reduced short position while below .7415

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

.7030

.7085

.7150

.7200

*7415

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Downside Retest Coming Up For USD/JPY?

USD/JPY and most other ‘risk markets’ seem to be coming up on an important near-term juncture in both price & time. If Monday’s meltdown under the 161.8% projection of the June – July decline in the exchange rate was indeed some sort of important low then we should find out in the next week or so of trading. Looking at the cyclical picture, the ideal time to see near-term downside forces try to re-assert themselves is around the early part of next week. Immediate attention pricewise looks be on 125.65/80 (and with good reason as there is a lot of stuff there including the 200-day moving average and the July closing low), but if USD/JPY does have a little more upside left then it will be hard to see this zone holding up so we can’t rule out a push to Gann resistance at 121.45 or even 122.55. Assuming USD/JPY does peter out then this is where things will get interesting as it should lead to some sort of retest into a more important cyclical pivot around the end of next week/start of the week of September 7th. A couple of things to be on the lookout for is if USD/JPY doesn’t stall out by the middle of next week as this would argue a low is already firmly in place and that a meaningful retest is unlikely. Similarly only a modest 1-2 day pullback early next week followed by a quick break back through the anticipated high would also severely undermine retest chances. We will revisit how things are shaping up heading into the more important turn window if spot exhibits the weakness that we expect.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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