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Price & Time: USD/JPY Struggles Higher

Price & Time: USD/JPY Struggles Higher

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY Struggles Higher

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD fell to its lowest level in almost three months this morning
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while below 1.0980
  • A daily close below the May low around 1.0820 is needed to kick off a more serious decline
  • A very minor turn window is eyed today
  • A close back over 1.0980 would turn us positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.0980.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.0785

*1.0820

1.0850

1.0885

*1.0980

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY Struggles Higher

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD found support late last week at .6500 and has rallied steadily over the past few days
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Kiwi while below .6730
  • A move back under .6500 is needed to re-instill some downside momentum into the exchange rate
  • A minor turn window is eyed later this week
  • A daily close above .6730 would turn us positive on the Bird

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .6730

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

*.6500

.6555

.6610

.6635

*.6730

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: USD/JPY Struggles Higher

USD/JPY has traded steadily higher since breaking above a trendline connecting the June highs last week. While the move up in price has been impressive over the past few days, volume has lagged severely and fallen to levels well below recent averages (which were already low to begin with). This is a bit of a concern and certainly raises the possibility that some sort of secondary high is playing out in in the exchange rate. The 124.40 mid-June high and the 78.6% retracement of the June – July decline at 124.70 are key levels to monitor over the next few sessions. Interestingly volume at price (not shown) also suggests the 124.70 area is signficant. Traction above here (ideally with stronger volume) is needed to alleviate some of our concern. A failure around current levels followed by a break of support around 123.00 would turn things negative.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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