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Price & Time: Waiting For A Signal in USDOLLAR

Price & Time: Waiting For A Signal in USDOLLAR

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Waiting For A Signal in USDOLLAR

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD failed again yesterday near the 50-day moving average
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while below 1.1170
  • Last week’s low near 1.0920 remains a near-term pivot ahead of the critical June low at 1.0820
  • A minor turn window is eyed here
  • A close back over 1.1170 would turn us positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1170.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.0920

1.1000

1.1015

*1.1170

1.1240

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Waiting For A Signal in USDOLLAR

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD continues to consolidate above .6600
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the kiwi while below .6850
  • The June 2010 low around .6560 is the next downside attraction for the exchange rate
  • A minor Fibonacci turn window is eyed here
  • A daily close back over .6850 would turn us positive again on NZD/USD

NZD/USD Strategy: Like only a reduced short position while below .6850.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

*.6560

.6605

.6680

.6795

*.6850

Focus Chart of the Day: USDOLLAR

Price & Time: Waiting For A Signal in USDOLLAR

The FXCM US DOLLAR Index (equally weighted basket of USD vs EUR, GBP, JPY & AUD) continues to lack much direction in a medium-term context, but there is some evidence that this could be changing. Over the past week or so the index has triggered an inverse head & shoulders pattern (best seen on the 4-hour chart) and broken above the trendline connecting the April/June highs just under 12,000. Momentum has since fallen off a bit, but attention remains on the June high and the 78.6% retracement of the April/May range near 12,050 as traction above there would likely signal the start of a more important push to the upside in the index. Weakness back under 11,920 would undermine these recent near-term positive technical developments.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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