Talking Points
- Euro meanders below key Fib level
- NZD/USD stalls above important support
- Cycle turn window coming up for USDOLLAR
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD continues to consolidate below the 78.6% retracement of the May range
- Our near-term trend bias is higher is higher in the euro while above 1.1035
- A close above 1.1330 is needed to set off a more important leg higher in the rate
- A turn window of some importance is seen over the next day or so
- A close below 1.1035 would turn us negative on the exchange rate
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.1035
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | *1.1035 | 1.1155 | 1.1275 | *1.1330 | 1.1390 |
Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD fell to its lowest level in almost 5-years last week
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Bird while under .7160
- A convergence of Fibonacci levels near .7000 needs to be breached to open the path to a more serious decline
- A cycle turn window of some importance is seen around the end of the week
- A daily close over .7160 would turn us positive on the Kiwi
NZD/USDStrategy: Like the short side while below .7160.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | .6980 | *.7000 | .7125 | *.7160 | .7200 |
Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM US DOLLAR Index
Trading in the main USD pairs has been extremely choppy over the past few days. An aggressive move higher in the dollar post payrolls has been clawed back at the start of the new week leaving the Greenback in a much more uncertain position. From a medium-term cyclical perspective the next day or so looks extremely important for the FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted basket of USD versus EUR, JPY, GBP & AUD) as the timing seems right for a reversal or at least an attempt at one. The 11,865 level looks to be an obvious pivot as traction below would trigger a minor topping pattern on the daily chart. USD/CAD has already broken its equivalent level this morning – leading? On the other hand, continued strength in the index after tomorrow above 12,000 would invalidate the potential negative cyclicality at work and re-focus higher.
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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
