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Price & Time: Kiwi Trades at Near 5-Year Low

Price & Time: Kiwi Trades at Near 5-Year Low

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY records new multi-year high
  • NZD/USD median line symmetry continues to influence
  • GBP/USD consolidates above key Fibo

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded at its highest level in almost 13-years on Friday before stalling out around the the 161.8% extension of the December range
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 123.75
  • A close above 125.70 is needed to set off a more important leg higher in the rate
  • A turn window of some importance is seen over the next day or so
  • A close below 123.75 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while above 123.75

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
USD/JPY*123.75125.00125.30*125.70127.00

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD continues to consolidate above the 50% retracement of the April – May advance
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the pound while below 1.5450
  • A daily settelment below 1.5190 is needed to set off a more important leg lower in the rate
  • A cycle turn window of some importance is seen over the next day two
  • Any traction over 1.5450 would turn us positive on Cable

GBP/USDStrategy: Like the short side while below 1.5450

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
GBP/USD1.5090*1.51901.52351.5315*1.5450

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

NZD/USD recorded its lowest level in almost 5-years on Friday as the exchange rate continues to fall along the median line channel connecting the April high and mid-May swing points. While the break to new multi-year lows obviously keeps the exchange rate in a pretty negative position, some caution is warranted as we near .7000. In addition to being psychologically significant, this area also marks a convergence of the 127% extension of the March – April and the 161.8% projection of the late April – mid May decline and is a clear potential reaction zone in the rate. It is also worth pointing out that the latter half of the week looks fairly significant from a cyclical perspective and a reversal (or at least an attempt at one) looks possible around this time. The March low around .7160 is now resistance and traction above there is needed to undermine the near-term negative technical structure.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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