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Price & Time: Key Break in Crude

Price & Time: Key Break in Crude

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD breaks key moving average
  • NZD/USD median line symmetry continues to influence
  • Crude cracks key resistance

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD surged higher on Tuesday to test the 20-day moving average
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while below 1.1200
  • A move under 1.0920 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the rate
  • A very minor cycle turn window is eyed today/tomorrow
  • A close above 1.1200 would turn us positive again on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1200

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
EUR/USD*13.09201.10401.11101.1155*1.1200

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD continues to fall along a median line channel
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the rate while below .7320
  • A convergence of Fibonacci levels near .7000 is the next big attraction of note
  • A very minor turn window is eyed today
  • Only a move over the trendline connecting the April and mid-May highs around .7320 would turn the technical picture positive

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.5450

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
NZD/USD.7000.7080.7145.7200*.7320

Focus Chart of the Day: CRUDE

The bottom of a median line channel connecting the 2013 high, the 1st half of 2014 low and the 2014 high has proven to be very strong resistance. After several failed attempts to gain traction above the line in May, the commodity finally managed to close above this key pivot yesterday. This technical break should prove important as it also triggers a possible bullish continuation pattern on the daily chart. The next key level of resistance looks to be last month’s cyclical high around 62.50. A move through this level would invalidate the negative cyclicality we have written about over the past few weeks and set the stage for a much more powerful advance. Only unexpected aggressive weakness back under last week’s low around 57.75 would undermine the burgeoning positive technical structure.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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