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Price & Time: Broader Trend Resuming in USD/CAD?

Price & Time: Broader Trend Resuming in USD/CAD?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY touches highest level in almost 8-years
  • Near-term cycle turn window in AUD/USD
  • USD/CAD breaks key fibo

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY broke above the 78.6% retracement of the 2002-2011 decline at 122.40 yesterday to record its highest level in almost 8-years
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 121.60
  • The 127% extension of the December range at 123.55 is a minor pivot ahead of the 2007 high near 124.15
  • A very minor cycle turn window is eyed today
  • A close below 121.60 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Like buying on weakness against 121.60

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD has come under steady pressure since failing at the 78.6% retracement of the year-to-date range near .8140
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower while below .7950
  • The 78.6% retracement of the April – May advance at .7665 is the next downside pivot of note
  • A very minor turn window is eyed today
  • A daily close back over .7950 would turn us positive on the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .7950

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

USD/CAD found support late last month near the 38% retracement of the July – March advance in the 1.2000 area. After several weeks of basing around this level the exchange rate triggered a triple bottom reversal on the move through 1.2200 and has been generally bid ever since. Yesterday’s break above the 50% retracement of the March – May decline is strong evidence that the broader USD uptrend is trying to re-assert itself here and a push through the 61.8% retracement at 1.2485 would further confirm this notion. Short-term cyclical analysis suggests we could see some two-way action develop over the next few days, but only unexpected aggressive weakness below 1.2170 would completely undermine the near-term positive technical structure in Funds.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.