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Price & Time: USD Turning the Corner?

Price & Time: USD Turning the Corner?

2015-05-21 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD bounces off Gann level
  • NZD/USD tests key retracement
  • Crude consolidation or breakdown?

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: USD Turning the Corner?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD recorded a new low for the month yesterday before finding support near a square root relationship at 1.1070
  • Our near-term trend bias is now lower in the euro while below 1.1310
  • A conflluence of Gann and Fibonacci levels near 1.1020 is an important downside pivot for the exchange rate
  • A very minor cycle turn window is eyed Friday
  • A close above 1.1310 would turn us positive on the euro again

EUR/USD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.1020

1.1070

1.1150

1.1200

*1.1310

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: USD Turning the Corner?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD fell to its lowest level in over two months yesterday before finding support at the 78.6% retracement of the March to April advance near .7285
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower while below .7450
  • A close under the .7285 is needed to set off the next leg lower in the rate
  • A turn window is eyed Thursday/Friday
  • A daily close over .7450 would turn us positive on the Kiwi

NZD/USD Strategy: Like reducing short positions into this turn window.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

.7235

*.7285

.7320

.7380

*.7450

Focus Chart of the Day: CRUDE

Price & Time: USD Turning the Corner?

There is plenty of conflicting evidence out there at the moment as to whether USD has turned a corner or not. For instance, the sharp move higher in the US Dollar Index through trendline resistance earlier in the week would have one believe that the primary uptrend is trying to re-assert itself here and now. On the other hand, the successful test and hold of trendline support over the past couple of days in Cable suggests the correction in force since the middle of April remains very much alive and well. We can throw the daily Crude chart in the mix as well as a market with no real conviction. Last month we argued that the start of May was a good time for Crude to attempt to stage a reversal. Crude responded well to this turn window with the absolute high coming right on the May 6th focus date. However, downside follow through has been limited since then as the commodity has chopped around a narrowing 4 dollar range. For us to get more excited about a more important top we would need to see a daily settlement below 58.00 – and soon. There is now plenty of risk that the correction we were looking for has been the range of the past few weeks. A daily close over 62.50 would invalidate the negative cyclicality from the beginning of the month, but a move through long-term median line resistance now around 61.00 would be a strong sign that market is trying to trend up again.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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