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Price & Time: Decisions

Price & Time: Decisions

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Decisions

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded at its highest level in over two months this morning before stalling at Gann resistance near 1.1390
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while above 1.1175
  • A convergence of Gann and Fibonacci level between 1.1390 and 1.1435 needs to be overcome to set up a more important leg higher in the exchange rate
  • A cycle turn window of some importance is seen here
  • A close below 1.1175 would turn us negative on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding only a reduced long position while above 1.1175 as cycle analysis suggests there is some risk of a turn down.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.1175

1.1265

1.1370

1.1390

*1.1435

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Decisions

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD has come under steady pressure since failing last week at trendline resistance in the .7700 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Bird while below .7625
  • The 50% retracement of the March-April range at .7450 remains an important near-term pivot with traction below needed to set off the next leg lower
  • A minor turn window is eyed around the middle of next week
  • A daily close back over .7625 would turn us positive on the Kiwi

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .7625

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

.7385

*.7450

.7465

.7580

*7625

Focus Chart of the Day: US DOLLAR

Price & Time: Decisions

A big couple of days coming up here for the FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted basket of USD vs EUR, JPY, AUD & GBP). Our cycle work has been pointing to this period as being significant for the dollar and a natural point where the buck could try to turn back up. Seasonals also turn more positive here. Continued weakness after today would be quite negative from a cyclical perspective and signal the decline in the dollar has more room to run. Obviously tomorrow’s employment data will have a lot of say in which direction we head (or at least be the excuse). Key levels we will be monitoring during this critical period include 11,900 on the upside and 11,740/50 on the downside. The 11,900 level was this week’s high and coincides with the 38% retracement of the April range. It is also the trigger for a potential double bottom on the daily chart. 11,740 was last week’s low while 11,755 is the 50% retracement of the December-April advance. A clear break below will put the dollar even further on the back foot.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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