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Price & Time: Downside Revival in the Kiwi?

Price & Time: Downside Revival in the Kiwi?

2015-05-05 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD testing key support zone
  • NZD/USD cracks important trendline
  • GBP/USD break back under Fib confluence

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Downside Revival in the Kiwi?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD came under furthe pressure this monring to test Gann support at 1.1075
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher while above this level (closing basis)
  • Traction over 1.1270 is needed to re-instill upside momentum in the rate
  • A minor cycle turn window is eyed around the middle of the week
  • A close below 1.1075 would turn us negative on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.1075, but a cycle convergence this week suggests the broader trend could be re-asserting.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.1040

*1.1075

1.1090

1.1200

*1.1270

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: Downside Revival in the Kiwi?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD reversed sharply last week from just under 1.5500
  • Our near-term trend bias is now lower in the pound
  • A move under the 50% retracement of the Fenruary-April decline near 1.5060 is needed to trigger another leg lower in the rate
  • A minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
  • A daily close back over 1.5300would turn positive again on the pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.5300

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.5000

*1.5060

1.5115

1.5180

*1.5300

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Downside Revival in the Kiwi?

The break of the trendline in NZD/USD connecting the March and April lows around .7600 finally gave way late last week leading to a sharp move to the downside. The corresponding close below the April 23rd low has also triggered a fairly clear double top pattern on the daily chart that opens the way for move towards .7300 in the days ahead. It is also worth noting that last week’s reversal from .7740 came during a cyclically significant period that warns the broader downtrend could try to re-assert itself here. The short-term cyclical picture turns more positive after today, but as long as any recovery attempts remain below.7610 the newly found negative technical structure will remain intact.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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