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Price & Time: Euro Cracks Key Retracement Levels

Price & Time: Euro Cracks Key Retracement Levels

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist


Talking Points

  • Broader trend resuming in the euro?
  • USD/JPY crack key Fib level
  • S&P 500 flirting with important pivot

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level in three weeks today
  • A close above 120.60 will turn us positive on the exchange rate
  • A move under 120.00 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the rate
  • A minor turn window is eyed around the middle of the week

USD/JPY Strategy: Square.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 has steadily rallied from the turn window last week
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the index while above 2040
  • A move through key resistance at 2108/25 is needed to confirm that the broader trend is resuming
  • A minor turn window is eyed here
  • A close under 2040 would turn us negative on the index

S&P 500 Strategy: Like the long side while over 2040.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
S&P 500*2040207721002108*2125

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

An interesting week of trading in EUR/USD to say the least. This time last week the USD was still reeling from the poor payrolls data and the euro was looking to gain a foothold over the 1.10 handle. A mere 5 trading days later and we find ourselves almost 5 big figures lower and within striking distance of the year’s lows. There are plenty of reasons being thrown out for the “reason” behind the swift turn around, but my experience has been that whenever you get a strong move in the opposing direction of the news flow the market is really trying to tell you something. The 1.0685-1.0585 region which marks the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements of the late March range has looked like a critical pivot over the past few weeks. A close below this area this week should confirm that the broader downtrend is resuming and set the stage for a push to re-test the 127% extension of the 2005-2008 advance around 1.0440. Only a move back over 1.0685 would raise the risk that a wider range is developing.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.